Characterizing the dynamics, reactivity and controllability of moods in depression with a Kalman filter.

Background: Mood disorders involve a complex interplay between multifaceted internal emotional states, and complex external inputs. Dynamical systems theory suggests that this interplay between aspects of moods and environmental stimuli may hence determine key psychopathological features of mood disorders, including the stability of mood states, the response to external inputs, how controllable mood states are, and what interventions are most likely to be effective. However, a comprehensive computational approach to all these aspects has not yet been undertaken.

Methods: Here, we argue that the combination of ecological momentary assessments (EMA) with a well-established dynamical systems framework-the humble Kalman filter-enables a comprehensive account of all these aspects. We first introduce the key features of the Kalman filter and optimal control theory and their relationship to aspects of psychopathology. We then examine the psychometric and inferential properties of combining EMA data with Kalman filtering across realistic scenarios. Finally, we apply the Kalman filter to a series of EMA datasets comprising over 700 participants with and without symptoms of depression.

Results: The results show a naive Kalman filter approach performs favourably compared to the standard vector autoregressive approach frequently employed, capturing key aspects of the data better. Furthermore, it suggests that the depressed state involves alterations to interactions between moods; alterations to how moods responds to external inputs; and as a result an alteration in how controllable mood states are. We replicate these findings qualitatively across datasets and explore an extension to optimal control theory to guide therapeutic interventions.

Conclusions: Mood dynamics are richly and profoundly altered in depressed states. The humble Kalman filter is a well-established, rich framework to characterise mood dynamics. Its application to EMA data is valid; straightforward; and likely to result in substantial novel insights both into mechanisms and treatments.