Chih-Lin Kuo, Jing-Rong Jhuang, Shih-Yung Su, Chun-Ju Chiang, Ya-Wen Yang, Li-Ju Lin, Pei-Chun Hsieh, Tsui-Hsia Hsu, Wen-Chung Lee
{"title":"大肠癌发病率的交互趋势:筛查和出生队列的综合影响。","authors":"Chih-Lin Kuo, Jing-Rong Jhuang, Shih-Yung Su, Chun-Ju Chiang, Ya-Wen Yang, Li-Ju Lin, Pei-Chun Hsieh, Tsui-Hsia Hsu, Wen-Chung Lee","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae123","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Colorectal cancer remains a major global public health challenge. Its incidence is shaped by a complex interplay of screening programmes and age, period and cohort factors.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We introduce a novel Age-Period-Cohort-Screening (APCS) model to analyse trends in colorectal cancer incidence in Taiwan from 2000 to 2019.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2010, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Taiwan increased by 19.2% (95% CI: 13.5%, 25.3%) for men and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 22.4%) for women. This was followed by annual declines of 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8%, 4.1%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.9%), respectively. By 2015 for men and 2014 for women, the age-standardized incidence had fallen below the levels projected in a no-screening scenario. By 2019, the incidence had further declined by 12.4% (95% CI: 11.8%, 13.1%) for men and 11.6% (95% CI: 10.7%, 12.6%) for women, compared with the no-screening scenario. Cohort effects have shown a persistent rise from 1920 to 1980: incidence increased 5.8-fold for men and 3.1-fold for women. The trend began to plateau after 1980, with a noticeable decline in women.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Through its screening programme, Taiwan has successfully reduced colorectal cancer incidence by 10% as of 2019. Furthermore, the incidence due to cohort effects has plateaued and even begun to decline. However, continued monitoring remains crucial. The advanced APCS model could serve as a robust analytical tool for other researchers and policy makers evaluating the impacts of cancer screening programmes on incidence trends.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Interacting trends of colorectal cancer incidence: the combined effects of screening and birth cohort.\",\"authors\":\"Chih-Lin Kuo, Jing-Rong Jhuang, Shih-Yung Su, Chun-Ju Chiang, Ya-Wen Yang, Li-Ju Lin, Pei-Chun Hsieh, Tsui-Hsia Hsu, Wen-Chung Lee\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/ije/dyae123\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Colorectal cancer remains a major global public health challenge. Its incidence is shaped by a complex interplay of screening programmes and age, period and cohort factors.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We introduce a novel Age-Period-Cohort-Screening (APCS) model to analyse trends in colorectal cancer incidence in Taiwan from 2000 to 2019.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2010, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Taiwan increased by 19.2% (95% CI: 13.5%, 25.3%) for men and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 22.4%) for women. This was followed by annual declines of 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8%, 4.1%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.9%), respectively. By 2015 for men and 2014 for women, the age-standardized incidence had fallen below the levels projected in a no-screening scenario. By 2019, the incidence had further declined by 12.4% (95% CI: 11.8%, 13.1%) for men and 11.6% (95% CI: 10.7%, 12.6%) for women, compared with the no-screening scenario. Cohort effects have shown a persistent rise from 1920 to 1980: incidence increased 5.8-fold for men and 3.1-fold for women. 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The advanced APCS model could serve as a robust analytical tool for other researchers and policy makers evaluating the impacts of cancer screening programmes on incidence trends.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14147,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of epidemiology\",\"volume\":\"53 5\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of epidemiology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyae123\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyae123","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Interacting trends of colorectal cancer incidence: the combined effects of screening and birth cohort.
Background: Colorectal cancer remains a major global public health challenge. Its incidence is shaped by a complex interplay of screening programmes and age, period and cohort factors.
Methods: We introduce a novel Age-Period-Cohort-Screening (APCS) model to analyse trends in colorectal cancer incidence in Taiwan from 2000 to 2019.
Results: In 2010, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Taiwan increased by 19.2% (95% CI: 13.5%, 25.3%) for men and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 22.4%) for women. This was followed by annual declines of 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8%, 4.1%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.9%), respectively. By 2015 for men and 2014 for women, the age-standardized incidence had fallen below the levels projected in a no-screening scenario. By 2019, the incidence had further declined by 12.4% (95% CI: 11.8%, 13.1%) for men and 11.6% (95% CI: 10.7%, 12.6%) for women, compared with the no-screening scenario. Cohort effects have shown a persistent rise from 1920 to 1980: incidence increased 5.8-fold for men and 3.1-fold for women. The trend began to plateau after 1980, with a noticeable decline in women.
Conclusion: Through its screening programme, Taiwan has successfully reduced colorectal cancer incidence by 10% as of 2019. Furthermore, the incidence due to cohort effects has plateaued and even begun to decline. However, continued monitoring remains crucial. The advanced APCS model could serve as a robust analytical tool for other researchers and policy makers evaluating the impacts of cancer screening programmes on incidence trends.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Epidemiology is a vital resource for individuals seeking to stay updated on the latest advancements and emerging trends in the field of epidemiology worldwide.
The journal fosters communication among researchers, educators, and practitioners involved in the study, teaching, and application of epidemiology pertaining to both communicable and non-communicable diseases. It also includes research on health services and medical care.
Furthermore, the journal presents new methodologies in epidemiology and statistics, catering to professionals working in social and preventive medicine. Published six times a year, the International Journal of Epidemiology provides a comprehensive platform for the analysis of data.
Overall, this journal is an indispensable tool for staying informed and connected within the dynamic realm of epidemiology.