波多黎各总和生育率的贝叶斯预测:2020-2050 年。

Puerto Rico health sciences journal Pub Date : 2024-09-01
Angélica M Rosario-Santos, Luis Pericchi-Guerra, Hernando Mattei
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摘要

目标:波多黎各的总和生育率(TFR)突然下降到每名妇女 0.9 个子女,远远低于每名妇女 2.1 个子女的更替水平,这使得人口持续下降的前景成为现实。美国人口普查局和联合国人口司的人口预测显示,波多黎各岛的人口可能从 2000 年的 380 万下降到 2050 年的略高于 200 万,即 50 年内人口锐减 47%。这两项人口预测都假定,所有总生育率低于更替水平的国家最终都会增加到或振荡到每名妇女 2.1 个孩子,到 2050 年波多黎各的总生育率将接近 1.5。这一假设被广泛批评为不切实际,没有证据支持。我们研究的主要目的是为波多黎各到 2050 年的生育率预测提供一个具有更现实假设的替代方案:我们的方法以联合国使用的贝叶斯层次概率理论为基础,纳入了衡量不确定性和估算预测参数的方法。我们修改了联合国使用的假设,考虑了 17 个总生育率与波多黎各相似的国家:到 2050 年,波多黎各的总生育率可能为 1.1,可信区间为 95%(0.56,1.77):在这种情况下,波多黎各的人口下降幅度将大于人口普查局和联合国的预测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Bayesian Projection of the Total Fertility Rate of Puerto Rico: 2020-2050.

Objective: The abrupt decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Puerto Rico to 0.9 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, makes the prospect of a sustained population decline a real possibility. Population projections produced by the United States Census Bureau and the United Nations Population Division show that the island population may decline from 3.8 millions in 2000 to slightly above 2 million by 2050, a dramatic population decline of 47% in 50 years. Both population projections assume that all countries with a TFR below replacement level could eventually increase toward or oscillate to 2.1 children per woman and have Puerto Rico's TFR approaching 1.5 by 2050. This assumption has been widely criticized as unrealistic and not supported by evidence. The main objective of our research is to provide an alternative fertility projection for Puerto Rico by 2050 that has more realistic assumptions.

Methods: Our methodology is based on the Bayesian Hierarchical Probabilistic Theory used by the United Nations to incorporate a way to measure the uncertainty and to estimate the projection parameters. We modified the assumptions used by the United Nations by considering 17 countries with TFR similar to Puerto Rico.

Results: By 2050, Puerto Rico may have a TFR of 1.1 bounded by a 95% credibility interval (0.56,1.77).

Conclusion: Under this scenario Puerto Rico can expect to have a larger population decline than that projected by the Census Bureau and the United Nations.

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