Baseline multimodal imaging to predict longitudinal clinical decline in atypical Alzheimer's disease

There are recognized neuroimaging regions of interest in typical Alzheimer's disease which have been used to track disease progression and aid prognostication. However, there is a need for validated baseline imaging markers to predict clinical decline in atypical Alzheimer's Disease. We aimed to address this need by producing models from baseline imaging features using penalized regression and evaluating their predictive performance on various clinical measures.

Baseline multimodal imaging data, in combination with clinical testing data at two time points from 46 atypical Alzheimer's Disease patients with a diagnosis of logopenic progressive aphasia (N = 24) or posterior cortical atrophy (N = 22), were used to generate our models. An additional 15 patients (logopenic progressive aphasia = 7, posterior cortical atrophy = 8), whose data were not used in our original analysis, were used to test our models. Patients underwent MRI, FDG-PET and Tau-PET imaging and a full neurologic battery at two time points. The Schaefer functional atlas was used to extract network-based and regional gray matter volume or PET SUVR values from baseline imaging. Penalized regression (Elastic Net) was used to create models to predict scores on testing at Time 2 while controlling for baseline performance, education, age, and sex. In addition, we created models using clinical or Meta Region of Interested (ROI) data to serve as comparisons.

We found the degree of baseline involvement on neuroimaging was predictive of future performance on cognitive testing while controlling for the above measures on all three imaging modalities. In many cases, model predictability improved with the addition of network-based neuroimaging data to clinical data. We also found our network-based models performed superiorly to the comparison models comprised of only clinical or a Meta ROI score.

Creating predictive models from imaging studies at a baseline time point that are agnostic to clinical diagnosis as we have described could prove invaluable in both the clinical and research setting, particularly in the development and implementation of future disease modifying therapies.