Long-term trends in mountain groundwater levels across Canada and the United States

Mountains have a critical role in freshwater supply for downstream populations. As the climate changes, groundwater stored in mountains may help buffer the impacts to declining water resources caused by decreased snowpack and glacier recession. However, given the scarcity of groundwater observation wells in mountain regions, it remains unclear how mountain groundwater is being impacted by climate change across ecoregions. This study quantifies temporal trends in mountain groundwater levels and explores how various climatic, physiographic and anthropogenic factors affect these trends. We compiled data from 171 public groundwater observation wells within mountain regions across Canada and the United States, for which at least 20 years of monthly data is available. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend revealed that 54% of these wells have statistically significant temporal trends (p < 0.05) over the period of record, of which 69% were negative and therefore indicating overall declining groundwater storage. Wells in the western mountain ranges showed stronger trends (both positive and negative) than the eastern mountain ranges, and higher elevation wells showed fewer negative trends than the low elevation (<400 m asl) wells (p < 0.05). Correlation, Kruskal-Wallis tests, stepwise multiple linear regression and random forest regression were used to identify factors controlling groundwater trends. Statistical analysis revealed that lower-elevation mountain regions with higher average annual temperatures and lower average annual precipitation have the greatest declines in groundwater storage under climate change. Trends in temperature and precipitation, and ecoregion were also important predictors on groundwater level trends, highlighting geographic differences in how mountain wells are responding to climate change. Furthermore, sedimentary bedrock aquifers showed markedly more negative trends than crystalline bedrock aquifers. The findings demonstrate that the impact of climate change on mountain water resources extends to the subsurface, with important implications for global water resources.