How does high-speed rail affect intercity elderly migration? Evidence from China

The rapid aging of the population poses significant challenges for social structures and economic development, with migration emerging as a key strategy for elderly individuals to enhance their social networks, quality of life, and overall well-being. This study delves into the role of high-speed rail (HSR) in facilitating intercity migration among the elderly in China, a country experiencing a pronounced demographic shift with a burgeoning aging population. By employing a Poisson regression model on unbalanced panel data from 2008 to 2017, this paper assesses the aggregate and heterogeneous effects of HSR on elderly migration, considering various migration purposes and the mediating effects of younger generation migration. The study uncovers that elderly migration is predominantly towards economically vibrant cities, with HSR significantly influencing migration patterns by improving accessibility and connectivity. The analysis reveals that the elderly migration along with their family is more influenced by accessibility improvements, while the elderly migration for work is more responsive to enhanced connectivity provided by HSR. Furthermore, the migration of younger generations moderates the positive impact of HSR on elderly migration, particularly for family and work-related migration, but not for healthcare-related migration. The insights from this study emphasize the importance of policies that encourage inter-generational migration, allowing younger and elderly family members to move together, which can help maintain family unity and reduce the social and economic pressures on cities that receive migrants. Moreover, the study advises cautious development of HSR in less prosperous areas to avoid exacerbating population loss and regional decline.