An update of the choosing by advantages (CBA) method from a probabilistic perspective: The selection of a heating system in a residential building

Choosing by Advantages (CBA) is a multi-criteria decision-making method, based on the importance of advantages, under a collaborative and transparent context, avoiding basing decisions on assumptions or previous experiences. Currently, the CBA application process excludes the uncertainty and variability inherent to the performance of alternatives involved in a decision-making process. Therefore, the objective of this work was to create a new proposal of the CBA method, which incorporates probabilistic on the attributes of the alternatives in the process of choosing, seeking to close the gap that the traditional CBA has in terms of the lack of incorporation of the uncertainty to which certain data could be affected. To validate the probabilistic CBA method, a simulation focused on an application case framed within the architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) industry, related to energy consumption in residential buildings, is carried out to select a heating system. The study demonstrates that the probabilistic CBA method enhances transparency and collaboration in decision-making by quantifying uncertainty and involving stakeholders in a structured process. Monte Carlo simulations provided a comprehensive view of potential outcomes, helping to identify the most advantageous alternative with a high probability of achieving significant benefits. This research seeks to contribute to the knowledge of the CBA method and provide greater versatility to its application, reaching use in any situation or area of performance, allowing to be a guide for decision-makers involving multiple criteria and variability in the attributes of the alternatives.