A plasma proteomic signature for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk prediction in the UK Biobank cohort

Background: While risk stratification for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is essential for primary prevention, current clinical risk algorithms demonstrate variability and leave room for further improvement. The plasma proteome holds promise as a future diagnostic and prognostic tool that can accurately reflect complex human traits and disease processes. We assessed the ability of plasma proteins to predict ASCVD. Method: Clinical, genetic, and high-throughput plasma proteomic data were analyzed for association with ASCVD in a cohort of 41,650 UK Biobank participants. Selected features for analysis included clinical variables such as a UK-based cardiovascular clinical risk score (QRISK3) and lipid levels, 36 polygenic risk scores (PRSs), and Olink protein expression data of 2,920 proteins. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to select features and compared area under the curve (AUC) statistics between data types. Randomized LASSO regression with a stability selection algorithm identified a smaller set of more robustly associated proteins. The benefit of plasma proteins over standard clinical variables, the QRISK3 score, and PRSs was evaluated through the derivation of Δ AUC values. We also assessed the incremental gain in model performance using proteomic datasets with varying numbers of proteins. To identify potential causal proteins for ASCVD, we conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Result: The mean age of our cohort was 54.3 years, 53.3% were female, and 9.9% developed incident ASCVD over a median follow-up of 6.9 years. A protein-only LASSO model selected 294 proteins and returned an AUC of 0.723 (95% CI 0.708-0.737). A clinical variable and PRS-only LASSO model selected 4 clinical variables and 20 PRSs and achieved an AUC of 0.726 (95% CI 0.712-0.741). The addition of the full proteomic dataset to clinical variables and PRSs resulted in a Δ AUC of 0.010 (95% CI 0.003-0.018). Fifteen proteins selected by a stability selection algorithm offered improvement in ASCVD prediction over the QRISK3 risk score [Δ AUC: 0.013 (95% CI 0.005-0.021)]. Filtered and clustered versions of the full proteomic dataset (consisting of 600-1,500 proteins) performed comparably to the full dataset for ASCVD prediction. Using MR, we identified 12 proteins as potentially causal for ASCVD. Conclusion: A plasma proteomic signature performs well for incident ASCVD prediction but only modestly improves prediction over clinical and genetic factors. Further studies are warranted to better elucidate the clinical utility of this signature in predicting the risk of ASCVD over the standard practice of using the QRISK3 score.