基于模型的 2015 年至 2019 年意大利 RSV 引起的住院和死亡发生率估计

IF 4.7 3区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Estelle Méroc, Caihua Liang, Raffaella Iantomasi, Chukwuemeka Onwuchekwa, Giuseppe Pietro Innocenti, Daniela d’Angela, Solomon Molalign, Thao Mai Phuong Tran, Somsuvro Basu, Bradford D. Gessner, Robin Bruyndonckx, Aleksandra Polkowska-Kramek, Elizabeth Begier
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引用次数: 0

摘要

导言:众所周知,呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)在成人中的发病率被低估了,原因是其诊断检测并不频繁,而且在幼儿期之外,单次鼻/鼻咽拭子 PCR 检测的灵敏度较低。RSV 可引发急性心脏事件,也可导致呼吸道疾病。因此,我们使用基于模型的研究来估算 2015 年至 2019 年期间意大利成人 RSV 可归因于住院和死亡的发生率。方法通过 CREA Sanità 提供的数据库,从意大利卫生部住院收集数据和意大利国家统计局 (ISTAT) 数据(死亡率)中提取每月数据,我们估算了每年 RSV 可归因于不同心肺结果的事件发生率。我们使用了准泊松回归模型,该模型考虑了周期性和非周期性的时间趋势以及病毒活动代用指标。结果每年 RSV 导致的心肺疾病住院发病率随着年龄的增长而增加,年龄≥ 75 岁的成年人发病率最高(每 10 万人年 1064-1527 例)。同样,RSV 导致的心肺疾病死亡率在年龄≥ 75 岁的人群中最高(每 10 万人年中 59-85 例死亡)。RSV 导致的住院率和 RSV 导致的死亡率中,心肺疾病的发病率平均是呼吸系统疾病的 2-3 倍。仅基于 RSV 特异性 ICD 编码的发病率比考虑到未检测事件的模型估计值低 405-1729 倍。我们的研究结果表明,需要采取有效的 RSV 预防策略,尤其是在老年人中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Model-Based Estimation of RSV-Attributable Incidence of Hospitalizations and Deaths in Italy Between 2015 and 2019

Introduction

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence is known to be underestimated in adults due to its infrequent diagnostic testing and lower sensitivity of single nasal/nasopharyngeal swab PCR testing outside of the early childhood period. RSV can trigger acute cardiac events as well as cause respiratory disease. Consequently, we used a model-based study to estimate RSV-attributable hospitalization and mortality incidence among adults in Italy between 2015 and 2019.

Methods

Through a database predisposed by CREA Sanità, by extracting monthly data from the Italian hospitalization collection data of the Ministry of Health and the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) data (mortality), we estimated yearly RSV-attributable incidence of events for different cardiorespiratory outcomes. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model, which accounted for periodic and aperiodic time trends and viral activity proxies.

Results

The yearly RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory hospitalization incidence increased with age and was highest among adults aged ≥ 75 years (1064–1527 cases per 100,000 person-years). Similarly, the RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory mortality rate was highest among persons aged ≥ 75 years (59–85 deaths per 100,000 person-years). Incidence rates for RSV-attributable hospitalizations and RSV-attributable mortality were on average 2–3 times higher for cardiorespiratory than respiratory disease alone. Incidence rate based on RSV-specific ICD codes only were 405–1729 times lower than modeled estimates accounting for untested events.

Conclusion

RSV causes a substantial disease burden among adults in Italy and contributes to both respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Our results emphasize the need for effective RSV prevention strategies, particularly among older adults.

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来源期刊
Infectious Diseases and Therapy
Infectious Diseases and Therapy Medicine-Microbiology (medical)
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
1.90%
发文量
136
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍: Infectious Diseases and Therapy is an international, open access, peer-reviewed, rapid publication journal dedicated to the publication of high-quality clinical (all phases), observational, real-world, and health outcomes research around the discovery, development, and use of infectious disease therapies and interventions, including vaccines and devices. Studies relating to diagnostic products and diagnosis, pharmacoeconomics, public health, epidemiology, quality of life, and patient care, management, and education are also encouraged. Areas of focus include, but are not limited to, bacterial and fungal infections, viral infections (including HIV/AIDS and hepatitis), parasitological diseases, tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases, vaccinations and other interventions, and drug-resistance, chronic infections, epidemiology and tropical, emergent, pediatric, dermal and sexually-transmitted diseases.
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