全球水文和地表模型水文通量的重要预测因子

IF 4.6 1区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
João Paulo L. F. Brêda, Lieke A. Melsen, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Albert Van Dijk, Vinícius A. Siqueira, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Martine van der Ploeg
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球水文和地表模型(GHM/LSMs)包含大量相互作用的预测因子和方程,使对主要水文关系的理解变得复杂。我们提出了一种基于随机森林(RF)特征重要性的模型诊断方法,以检测对模拟水文流量影响最大的输入变量。我们分析了 JULES、ORCHIDEE、HTESSEL、SURFEX 和 PCR-GLOBWB 模型,以确定降水、气候、土壤、土地覆盖和地形坡度作为模拟平均蒸发、径流、地表和地下径流预测因子的相对重要性。RF 模型具有元模型的功能,可以再现 GHM/LsSM 的输出结果,其判定系数 (R2) 在所有情况下都超过 0.85,而且通常要好得多。GHM/LSMs 一致认为,降水、气候和土地覆盖对蒸发预测同等重要,平均降水量是预测径流的最重要因素,而地形坡度和土壤质地对水平衡的总方差没有影响。然而,在哪些特征决定地表和地下径流过程的问题上,特别是在土壤质地和地形坡度的相对重要性方面,全球高分辨率地形图/全球低分辨率地形图的意见并不一致。最后,土壤地图的选择只对土壤是相关预测因子的目标变量重要。我们的结论是,估计地物的重要性是模型相互比较项目的一种有用的诊断方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predictor Importance for Hydrological Fluxes of Global Hydrological and Land Surface Models
Global Hydrological and Land Surface Models (GHM/LSMs) embody numerous interacting predictors and equations, complicating the understanding of primary hydrological relationships. We propose a model diagnostic approach based on Random Forest (RF) feature importance to detect the input variables that most influence simulated hydrological fluxes. We analyzed the JULES, ORCHIDEE, HTESSEL, SURFEX, and PCR-GLOBWB models for the relative importance of precipitation, climate, soil, land cover and topographic slope as predictors of simulated average evaporation, runoff, and surface and subsurface runoff. RF models functioned as a metamodel and could reproduce GHM/LSMs outputs with a coefficient of determination (R2) over 0.85 in all cases and often considerably better. The GHM/LSMs agreed that precipitation, climate and land cover share equal importance for evaporation prediction, and mean precipitation is the most important predictor of runoff, while topographic slope and soil texture have no influence on the total variance of the water balance. However, the GHM/LSMs disagreed on which features determine surface and subsurface runoff processes, especially with regard to the relative importance of soil texture and topographic slope. Finally, the selection of soil maps was only important for target variables of which soil is a relevant predictor. We conclude that estimating feature importance is a useful diagnostic approach for model intercomparison projects.
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来源期刊
Water Resources Research
Water Resources Research 环境科学-湖沼学
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
13.00%
发文量
599
审稿时长
3.5 months
期刊介绍: Water Resources Research (WRR) is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. It publishes original research in the natural and social sciences of water. It emphasizes the role of water in the Earth system, including physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes in water resources research and management, including social, policy, and public health implications. It encompasses observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven approaches that advance the science of water and its management. Submissions are evaluated for their novelty, accuracy, significance, and broader implications of the findings.
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