最近的热浪是地中海西部地区极端气候的前奏

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00771-6

Ernesto Tejedor, Gerardo Benito, Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Fidel González-Rouco, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen

{"title":"最近的热浪是地中海西部地区极端气候的前奏","authors":"Ernesto Tejedor, Gerardo Benito, Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Fidel González-Rouco, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00771-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The 2022 and 2023 western Mediterranean summer temperatures exceeded millennial natural variability, reaching unprecedented anomalies of +3.6 °C and +2.9 °C respectively. We show that anthropogenic climate change may turn extreme heatwaves from a rarity of 1 in 10,000 years into events occurring every 4–75 years, depending on future scenarios. This shift underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies as extreme climate events manifest sooner and more intensely than expected.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00771-6.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Recent heatwaves as a prelude to climate extremes in the western Mediterranean region\",\"authors\":\"Ernesto Tejedor, Gerardo Benito, Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Fidel González-Rouco, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41612-024-00771-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The 2022 and 2023 western Mediterranean summer temperatures exceeded millennial natural variability, reaching unprecedented anomalies of +3.6 °C and +2.9 °C respectively. We show that anthropogenic climate change may turn extreme heatwaves from a rarity of 1 in 10,000 years into events occurring every 4–75 years, depending on future scenarios. This shift underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies as extreme climate events manifest sooner and more intensely than expected.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19438,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1-7\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00771-6.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00771-6\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00771-6","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

2022 年和 2023 年地中海西部夏季气温超过了千年自然变率，分别达到前所未有的+3.6 °C和+2.9 °C。我们的研究表明，人为气候变化可能会使极端热浪从万年一遇的罕见现象转变为每 4-75 年发生一次的事件，这取决于未来的情景。随着极端气候事件比预期来得更早、更剧烈，这种转变凸显了实施适应战略的紧迫性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Recent heatwaves as a prelude to climate extremes in the western Mediterranean region

查看原文本刊更多论文

Recent heatwaves as a prelude to climate extremes in the western Mediterranean region

The 2022 and 2023 western Mediterranean summer temperatures exceeded millennial natural variability, reaching unprecedented anomalies of +3.6 °C and +2.9 °C respectively. We show that anthropogenic climate change may turn extreme heatwaves from a rarity of 1 in 10,000 years into events occurring every 4–75 years, depending on future scenarios. This shift underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies as extreme climate events manifest sooner and more intensely than expected.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.