Computed tomography-based body composition indicative of diabetes after hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis

Background

Post‑acute pancreatitis prediabetes/diabetes mellitus (PPDM‑A) is one of the common sequelae of acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of our study was to build a machine learning (ML)-based prediction model for PPDM-A in hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTGP).

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 165 patients for our study. Demographic and laboratory data and body composition were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to select features for ML. Support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and logistic regression (LR) were used to develop prediction models for PPDM-A.

Results

65 patients were diagnosed with PPDM-A, and 100 patients were diagnosed with non-PPDM-A. Of the 84 body composition-related parameters, 15 were significant in discriminating between the PPDM-A and non-PPDM-A groups. Using clinical indicators and body composition parameters to develop ML models, we found that the SVM model presented the best predictive ability, obtaining the best AUC=0.796 in the training cohort, and the LDA and LR model showing an AUC of 0.783 and 0.745, respectively.

Conclusions

The association between body composition and PPDM-A provides insight into the potential pathogenesis of PPDM-A. Our model is feasible for reliably predicting PPDM-A in the early stages of AP and enables early intervention in patients with potential PPDM-A.