气象因素与人类感染出血热并发肾综合征之间的非对称关系：中国陕西 16 年生态趋势研究

IF 4.1 2区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

One Health Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100895

Chenlu Xue , Bingjie Zhang , Yanyan Li , Xinxiao Li , Chunjie Xu , Yongbin Wang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的肾综合征出血热（HFRS）继续对全球健康构成重大威胁。本研究旨在探究气象变量变化对出血热肾综合征的长期和短期非对称影响。方法收集陕西省2004年至2019年的出血热肾综合征月度发病报告数据以及相应的气象数据，进行生态趋势分析。结果总体而言，2004-2019年陕西HFRS发病率有所下降，年均变化率为-0.498%（95%CI为-13.247%至12.602%）。HFRS发生率在每年12月达到峰值，3月达到最低点。总降水量（AP）每增加 1 毫米，HFRS 发病率就会增加 4.3%，而每减少 1 毫米，HFRS 发病率就会增加 3.7%，这表明长期影响是不对称的（Wald 长期不对称检验 [WLT] = 9.072，P = 0.003）。在短期内，平均相对湿度（MRH）每降低 1%，HFRS 发病率就会下降 5.7%（Wald 短期不对称检验 [WSR] = 5.978，P = 0.015）。此外，气象变量的变化也显示出不同的影响：滞后 1 个月的ΔMWV(+)对 HFRS 有显著的短期正面影响；滞后 3 个月的ΔMRH(+)、滞后 2 个月的ΔAP(+)、滞后 1 个月的ΔAP(-)、滞后 1 个月的ΔASH(+)和滞后 3 个月的ΔASH(-)都对 HFRS 发病率有强烈的短期负面影响。结论天气变化在影响 HFRS 发病率方面起着重要作用，具有长期和短期的不对称和/或对称效应。通过 "一体健康 "视角利用 NARDL 模型为加强 HFRS 控制措施提供了大有可为的机会。

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Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China

Objective

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continues to pose a significant threat to global health. This study aimed to investigate both the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts of variations in meteorological variables on HFRS.

Methods

The reported monthly HFRS incidence data from Shaanxi between 2004 and 2019, along with corresponding meteorological data, were collected to conduct an ecological trend analysis. Subsequently, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models were used to examine the long- and short-term asymmetric effects of climate variables on HFRS incidence.

Results

Overall, a reduction in HFRS incidence was observed in Shaanxi from 2004 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change of −0.498 % (95 %CI -13.247 % to 12.602 %). HFRS incidence peaked in December and reached its lowest point in March each year. A 1 mm increase in aggregate precipitation (AP) was associated with a 4.3 % rise in HFRS incidence, while a 1 mm decrease contributed to a 3.7 % increase, indicating a long-term asymmetric impact (Wald long-term asymmetry test [WLT] = 9.072, P = 0.003). In the short term, a 1 % decrease in mean relative humidity (MRH) led to a 5.7 % decline in HFRS incidence (Wald short-term asymmetry test [WSR] = 5.978, P = 0.015). Additionally, changes in meteorological variables showed varied effects: ΔMWV(+) at a 1-month lag had a significant positive short-term effect on HFRS; ΔMRH(+) at a 3-month lag, ΔAP(+) at a 2-month lag, ΔAP(−) at a 1-month lag, ΔASH(+) at a 1-month lag, and ΔASH(−) at a 3-month lag all exhibited strong negative short-term impacts on HFRS incidence.

Conclusions

Weather variability plays a significant role in influencing HFRS incidence, with both long- and short-term asymmetric and/or symmetric effects. Utilizing the NARDL model through a One Health lens offers promising opportunities for enhancing HFRS control measures.

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来源期刊

One Health Medicine-Infectious Diseases

CiteScore

8.10

自引率

4.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks

期刊介绍： One Health - a Gold Open Access journal. The mission of One Health is to provide a platform for rapid communication of high quality scientific knowledge on inter- and intra-species pathogen transmission, bringing together leading experts in virology, bacteriology, parasitology, mycology, vectors and vector-borne diseases, tropical health, veterinary sciences, pathology, immunology, food safety, mathematical modelling, epidemiology, public health research and emergency preparedness. As a Gold Open Access journal, a fee is payable on acceptance of the paper. Please see the Guide for Authors for more information. Submissions to the following categories are welcome: Virology, Bacteriology, Parasitology, Mycology, Vectors and vector-borne diseases, Co-infections and co-morbidities, Disease spatial surveillance, Modelling, Tropical Health, Discovery, Ecosystem Health, Public Health.