{"title":"2022 年 CONUS 复合干旱-热浪事件中陆地-大气耦合的贡献及其对预报的影响","authors":"Donghyuck Yoon , Jan-Huey Chen , Eunkyo Seo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation regimes in these regions. In the NW and GP regions, the surface soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were coupled through water-limited processes. Heatwaves in these two regions were affected by the decrease of ET and the available SM due to the precipitation deficit. This type of land-atmosphere coupling was especially prominent in the GP. In the NE region, the heatwave governed ET through the increase of potential ET (PET) based on energy-limited coupling, which played a crucial role in the development of drought.</p><p>The impacts of the different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors on the predictability of the 13-km Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) were also investigated by checking its 10-day forecasts during the same period. The analysis was particularly focused on the GP and NE regions, where different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors were observed. The model's warm bias in the GP region was associated with the overestimated net radiation, and the bias was further amplified through the water-limited coupling. In the NE region, the PET-related variables, including surface air temperature, influenced the predictability of drought onset by limiting ET through the energy-limited coupling. Based on our findings, this study highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere coupling behaviors and provides a scientific strategy for enhancing the model predictability of compound drought-heatwaves.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100722"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000835/pdfft?md5=1fbba52bfc1f681f204a5078e035a0f4&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000835-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting\",\"authors\":\"Donghyuck Yoon , Jan-Huey Chen , Eunkyo Seo\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation regimes in these regions. In the NW and GP regions, the surface soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were coupled through water-limited processes. Heatwaves in these two regions were affected by the decrease of ET and the available SM due to the precipitation deficit. This type of land-atmosphere coupling was especially prominent in the GP. In the NE region, the heatwave governed ET through the increase of potential ET (PET) based on energy-limited coupling, which played a crucial role in the development of drought.</p><p>The impacts of the different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors on the predictability of the 13-km Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) were also investigated by checking its 10-day forecasts during the same period. The analysis was particularly focused on the GP and NE regions, where different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors were observed. The model's warm bias in the GP region was associated with the overestimated net radiation, and the bias was further amplified through the water-limited coupling. In the NE region, the PET-related variables, including surface air temperature, influenced the predictability of drought onset by limiting ET through the energy-limited coupling. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
2022 年 7 月和 8 月期间,在美国西北部(NW)、大平原(GP)和东北部(NE)三个毗连地区观测到了严重的复合干旱热浪事件。在这项研究中,我们发现这些干旱-热浪事件的发展受不同的陆地-大气耦合行为的影响,而这些耦合行为与这些地区的水和能量限制机制有关。在西北地区和 GP 地区,地表土壤水分(SM)和蒸散(ET)通过水分限制过程耦合。这两个地区的热浪受降水不足导致的蒸散发和可用土壤水分减少的影响。这种陆地-大气耦合在 GP 地区尤为突出。在东北部地区,热浪通过基于能量限制耦合的潜在蒸散发(PET)的增加来控制蒸散发,这对干旱的发展起到了至关重要的作用。通过检查地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)13 千米地-局域高分辨率预报系统(SHiELD)在同一时期的 10 天预报,还研究了不同的陆地-大气耦合行为对其可预测性的影响。分析尤其集中在 GP 和东北地区,因为在这两个地区观测到了不同的陆地-大气耦合行为。该模式在 GP 地区的暖偏差与高估的净辐射有关,并且偏差通过水限制耦合进一步放大。在东北部地区,包括地表气温在内的 PET 相关变量通过能量限制耦合限制蒸散发,从而影响了干旱发生的可预测性。基于我们的研究结果,本研究强调了陆地-大气耦合行为的关键作用,并为提高复合干旱-热浪的模式可预测性提供了科学策略。
Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting
Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation regimes in these regions. In the NW and GP regions, the surface soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were coupled through water-limited processes. Heatwaves in these two regions were affected by the decrease of ET and the available SM due to the precipitation deficit. This type of land-atmosphere coupling was especially prominent in the GP. In the NE region, the heatwave governed ET through the increase of potential ET (PET) based on energy-limited coupling, which played a crucial role in the development of drought.
The impacts of the different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors on the predictability of the 13-km Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) were also investigated by checking its 10-day forecasts during the same period. The analysis was particularly focused on the GP and NE regions, where different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors were observed. The model's warm bias in the GP region was associated with the overestimated net radiation, and the bias was further amplified through the water-limited coupling. In the NE region, the PET-related variables, including surface air temperature, influenced the predictability of drought onset by limiting ET through the energy-limited coupling. Based on our findings, this study highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere coupling behaviors and provides a scientific strategy for enhancing the model predictability of compound drought-heatwaves.
期刊介绍:
Weather and Climate Extremes
Target Audience:
Academics
Decision makers
International development agencies
Non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
Civil society
Focus Areas:
Research in weather and climate extremes
Monitoring and early warning systems
Assessment of vulnerability and impacts
Developing and implementing intervention policies
Effective risk management and adaptation practices
Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies
Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances