Andrew Weng, Omar Y. Ahmed, Gabriel Ehrlich, Anna Stefanopoulou
{"title":"向电动汽车过渡后,美国汽车装配厂的劳动密集程度更高","authors":"Andrew Weng, Omar Y. Ahmed, Gabriel Ehrlich, Anna Stefanopoulou","doi":"10.1038/s41467-024-52435-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>It has been widely suggested that the transition to battery electric vehicles will require 30% fewer assembly workers than those needed for internal combustion engine vehicles. Here, we use publicly available datasets on vehicle production and employment to show that labor intensity has increased at U.S. vehicle assembly plants that have fully transitioned to assembling battery electric vehicles. During the production ramp-up period, labor intensity increases by more than ten-fold compared to historic combustion vehicle assembly labor intensity. For one assembly site studied, labor intensity and total employment remained three times higher after a decade of electric vehicle production. Our study suggests that it may take longer than 15 years for electric vehicle assembly sites to achieve labor intensity parity with internal combustion vehicle assembly. Thus, rapid widespread loss of employment at vehicle assembly plants is a smaller risk than many fear. Moreover, our study calls for more regionally focused analyses of the transition’s effects on labor using data-driven and macro-level surveying approaches.</p>","PeriodicalId":19066,"journal":{"name":"Nature Communications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":14.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Higher labor intensity in US automotive assembly plants after transitioning to electric vehicles\",\"authors\":\"Andrew Weng, Omar Y. Ahmed, Gabriel Ehrlich, Anna Stefanopoulou\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41467-024-52435-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>It has been widely suggested that the transition to battery electric vehicles will require 30% fewer assembly workers than those needed for internal combustion engine vehicles. Here, we use publicly available datasets on vehicle production and employment to show that labor intensity has increased at U.S. vehicle assembly plants that have fully transitioned to assembling battery electric vehicles. During the production ramp-up period, labor intensity increases by more than ten-fold compared to historic combustion vehicle assembly labor intensity. For one assembly site studied, labor intensity and total employment remained three times higher after a decade of electric vehicle production. Our study suggests that it may take longer than 15 years for electric vehicle assembly sites to achieve labor intensity parity with internal combustion vehicle assembly. Thus, rapid widespread loss of employment at vehicle assembly plants is a smaller risk than many fear. Moreover, our study calls for more regionally focused analyses of the transition’s effects on labor using data-driven and macro-level surveying approaches.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19066,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nature Communications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":14.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nature Communications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52435-x\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Communications","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52435-x","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Higher labor intensity in US automotive assembly plants after transitioning to electric vehicles
It has been widely suggested that the transition to battery electric vehicles will require 30% fewer assembly workers than those needed for internal combustion engine vehicles. Here, we use publicly available datasets on vehicle production and employment to show that labor intensity has increased at U.S. vehicle assembly plants that have fully transitioned to assembling battery electric vehicles. During the production ramp-up period, labor intensity increases by more than ten-fold compared to historic combustion vehicle assembly labor intensity. For one assembly site studied, labor intensity and total employment remained three times higher after a decade of electric vehicle production. Our study suggests that it may take longer than 15 years for electric vehicle assembly sites to achieve labor intensity parity with internal combustion vehicle assembly. Thus, rapid widespread loss of employment at vehicle assembly plants is a smaller risk than many fear. Moreover, our study calls for more regionally focused analyses of the transition’s effects on labor using data-driven and macro-level surveying approaches.
期刊介绍:
Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.