金融中介和信息效率：预测商业周期

IF 4.8 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI:10.1016/j.iref.2024.103607

Ujjal Chatterjee , Joseph J. French , Constantin Gurdgiev , Paul Borochin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

理论认为，金融中介（FI）通过减少信息不对称和代理问题来刺激经济增长和支持金融体系稳定。这些文献大多侧重于银行贷款，在捕捉宏观经济总量变化方面成效有限。我们考虑了大量不同的金融中介机构，证明金融中介机构的总资产包含实际 GDP、投资、消费、工业生产和失业率的领先信息。而银行和影子银行资产仅包含有关未来经济状况的有限信息。总体而言，金融中介通过提供透明的未来经济状况领先信号，提高了市场的信息效率。

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Financial intermediation and informational efficiency: Predicting business cycles

Theory posits that financial intermediation (FI) spurs economic growth and supports financial system stability by reducing informational asymmetries and agency problems. Most of this literature focuses on bank lending and has limited success in capturing changes in macroeconomic aggregates. We consider a large set of different financial intermediaries to show that aggregate FI assets contain leading information about real GDP, investment, consumption, industrial production, and unemployment. Bank and shadow bank assets alone contain only limited information about future states of the economy. Overall, FI improves informational efficiency of the markets by providing transparent leading signals of the future economic conditions.

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来源期刊

International Review of Economics & Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

7.30

自引率

2.20%

发文量

253

期刊介绍： The International Review of Economics & Finance (IREF) is a scholarly journal devoted to the publication of high quality theoretical and empirical articles in all areas of international economics, macroeconomics and financial economics. Contributions that facilitate the communications between the real and the financial sectors of the economy are of particular interest.