{"title":"关于胜率的不稳定性","authors":"David Oakes","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2024.110267","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The win-ratio analysis of controlled clinical trials uses pairwise comparisons between patients in the treatment and control group based on a primary outcome, say time to death, with indeterminacies resolved where possible by a secondary outcome, say time to hospitalization. The resulting preferences may not be transitive. Intransitivity occurs when potential follow-up times vary between patients and rankings from the primary events differ from those from secondary events. We characterize the structure of closed loops, derive some general properties of win-ratio preferences and provide simple numerical illustrations. Under realistic assumptions, unless all potential follow-up times are equal, intransitivities are certain to occur in sufficiently large samples, but their overall frequency is low.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 110267"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715224002360/pdfft?md5=fd0a2637e1a6a5c617f98f7212ce4ef9&pid=1-s2.0-S0167715224002360-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"On the intransitivity of the win ratio\",\"authors\":\"David Oakes\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.spl.2024.110267\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The win-ratio analysis of controlled clinical trials uses pairwise comparisons between patients in the treatment and control group based on a primary outcome, say time to death, with indeterminacies resolved where possible by a secondary outcome, say time to hospitalization. The resulting preferences may not be transitive. Intransitivity occurs when potential follow-up times vary between patients and rankings from the primary events differ from those from secondary events. We characterize the structure of closed loops, derive some general properties of win-ratio preferences and provide simple numerical illustrations. Under realistic assumptions, unless all potential follow-up times are equal, intransitivities are certain to occur in sufficiently large samples, but their overall frequency is low.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49475,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Statistics & Probability Letters\",\"volume\":\"216 \",\"pages\":\"Article 110267\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715224002360/pdfft?md5=fd0a2637e1a6a5c617f98f7212ce4ef9&pid=1-s2.0-S0167715224002360-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Statistics & Probability Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715224002360\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistics & Probability Letters","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715224002360","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The win-ratio analysis of controlled clinical trials uses pairwise comparisons between patients in the treatment and control group based on a primary outcome, say time to death, with indeterminacies resolved where possible by a secondary outcome, say time to hospitalization. The resulting preferences may not be transitive. Intransitivity occurs when potential follow-up times vary between patients and rankings from the primary events differ from those from secondary events. We characterize the structure of closed loops, derive some general properties of win-ratio preferences and provide simple numerical illustrations. Under realistic assumptions, unless all potential follow-up times are equal, intransitivities are certain to occur in sufficiently large samples, but their overall frequency is low.
期刊介绍：
Statistics & Probability Letters adopts a novel and highly innovative approach to the publication of research findings in statistics and probability. It features concise articles, rapid publication and broad coverage of the statistics and probability literature.
Statistics & Probability Letters is a refereed journal. Articles will be limited to six journal pages (13 double-space typed pages) including references and figures. Apart from the six-page limitation, originality, quality and clarity will be the criteria for choosing the material to be published in Statistics & Probability Letters. Every attempt will be made to provide the first review of a submitted manuscript within three months of submission.
The proliferation of literature and long publication delays have made it difficult for researchers and practitioners to keep up with new developments outside of, or even within, their specialization. The aim of Statistics & Probability Letters is to help to alleviate this problem. Concise communications (letters) allow readers to quickly and easily digest large amounts of material and to stay up-to-date with developments in all areas of statistics and probability.
The mainstream of Letters will focus on new statistical methods, theoretical results, and innovative applications of statistics and probability to other scientific disciplines. Key results and central ideas must be presented in a clear and concise manner. These results may be part of a larger study that the author will submit at a later time as a full length paper to SPL or to another journal. Theory and methodology may be published with proofs omitted, or only sketched, but only if sufficient support material is provided so that the findings can be verified. Empirical and computational results that are of significant value will be published.
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