{"title":"基于贝叶斯网络和计算流体力学的煤矿瓦斯爆炸定量风险评估","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.psep.2024.08.080","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A gas explosion is one of the most serious coal mine accidents. The complexity and dynamics of gas explosion accidents, resulting from both multiple risk factors and time-dependent physical parameters, necessitates the use of risk assessment techniques to analyze the accident. A quantitative risk assessment method is proposed for coal mine gas explosions based on a Bayesian Network (BN) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The results show that, in addition to the problems of “low vigilance” and “substandard safety education”, the “irrational design of mine gas extraction” has become another major risk factor at the new stage of development of mine excavation technology. Three typical gas explosion areas are selected to analyze the possible consequences of an accident. Based on the probabilistic risk assessment model, time-dependent physical parameters such as accident conditions, location and time are analyzed. The probability of occurrence of time-dependent risk factors is quantified to calculate the risk values of the consequences of explosion accidents corresponding to different times. The proposed method helps to improve the calculation accuracy of updating the risk probability value over time and provides theoretical support for the risk analysis of coal mine gas explosion accidents.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20743,"journal":{"name":"Process Safety and Environmental Protection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Quantitative risk assessment of coal mine gas explosion based on a Bayesian network and computational fluid dynamics\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.psep.2024.08.080\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>A gas explosion is one of the most serious coal mine accidents. The complexity and dynamics of gas explosion accidents, resulting from both multiple risk factors and time-dependent physical parameters, necessitates the use of risk assessment techniques to analyze the accident. A quantitative risk assessment method is proposed for coal mine gas explosions based on a Bayesian Network (BN) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The results show that, in addition to the problems of “low vigilance” and “substandard safety education”, the “irrational design of mine gas extraction” has become another major risk factor at the new stage of development of mine excavation technology. Three typical gas explosion areas are selected to analyze the possible consequences of an accident. Based on the probabilistic risk assessment model, time-dependent physical parameters such as accident conditions, location and time are analyzed. The probability of occurrence of time-dependent risk factors is quantified to calculate the risk values of the consequences of explosion accidents corresponding to different times. The proposed method helps to improve the calculation accuracy of updating the risk probability value over time and provides theoretical support for the risk analysis of coal mine gas explosion accidents.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20743,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Process Safety and Environmental Protection\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Process Safety and Environmental Protection\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095758202401053X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Process Safety and Environmental Protection","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095758202401053X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Quantitative risk assessment of coal mine gas explosion based on a Bayesian network and computational fluid dynamics
A gas explosion is one of the most serious coal mine accidents. The complexity and dynamics of gas explosion accidents, resulting from both multiple risk factors and time-dependent physical parameters, necessitates the use of risk assessment techniques to analyze the accident. A quantitative risk assessment method is proposed for coal mine gas explosions based on a Bayesian Network (BN) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The results show that, in addition to the problems of “low vigilance” and “substandard safety education”, the “irrational design of mine gas extraction” has become another major risk factor at the new stage of development of mine excavation technology. Three typical gas explosion areas are selected to analyze the possible consequences of an accident. Based on the probabilistic risk assessment model, time-dependent physical parameters such as accident conditions, location and time are analyzed. The probability of occurrence of time-dependent risk factors is quantified to calculate the risk values of the consequences of explosion accidents corresponding to different times. The proposed method helps to improve the calculation accuracy of updating the risk probability value over time and provides theoretical support for the risk analysis of coal mine gas explosion accidents.
期刊介绍:
The Process Safety and Environmental Protection (PSEP) journal is a leading international publication that focuses on the publication of high-quality, original research papers in the field of engineering, specifically those related to the safety of industrial processes and environmental protection. The journal encourages submissions that present new developments in safety and environmental aspects, particularly those that show how research findings can be applied in process engineering design and practice.
PSEP is particularly interested in research that brings fresh perspectives to established engineering principles, identifies unsolved problems, or suggests directions for future research. The journal also values contributions that push the boundaries of traditional engineering and welcomes multidisciplinary papers.
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