突发事件网络舆情演变的新型随机 Petri 网建模方法：基于四个真实案例

IF 2.3 4区社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Systems Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI:10.3390/systems12090333

Chen Guo, Yinghua Song

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中，我们采用一种新的随机 Petri 网建模方法分析了突发事件网络舆情的演变过程。首先，从生命周期演化规律的角度，对突发事件网络舆情的发展过程进行了直观的概念化描述。然后，以 Petri 网理论为基础，构建了随机 Petri 网同构马尔可夫链模型，模拟突发事件网络舆情的演化过程。最后，选取了四个真实案例对模型进行了验证和分析，证明了不同的突发事件网络舆情在演化跃迁、复杂度、关键节点、演化速率和执行时间等方面存在差异。研究结果表明，该建模方法在研究基于多因素耦合的演化、量化突发事件网络舆情演化规律方面具有一定的优势。

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A New Stochastic Petri Net Modeling Approach for the Evolution of Online Public Opinion on Emergencies: Based on Four Real-Life Cases

In this study, we analyzed the evolution of online public opinion on emergencies using a new Stochastic Petri Net modeling approach. First, an intuitive description of the emergency online public opinion development process was conceptualized from the life cycle evolution law perspective. Then, based on Petri net theory, a Stochastic Petri Net isomorphic Markov chain model was constructed to simulate the evolution of online public opinion on emergencies. Finally, four real-life cases were selected to validate and analyze the model, demonstrating that the evolutionary leaps, complexity, critical nodes, evolutionary rate, and execution time differ across different online public opinions on emergencies. The study results indicate that this modeling approach has certain advantages in examining the evolution based on multi-factor coupling and quantifying the evolution law in online public opinion on emergencies.

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