全球水循环演变的随机方法:CMIP-6 模型的历史实验结果

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Serguei G. Dobrovolski, Vladislav P. Yushkov, Irina V. Solomonova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在气候时间尺度上,全球水交换整体特征的变化被视为随机函数(过程)。从 34 到 43 个不同气候模型(参加了 CMIP-6 "历史 "实验,时间跨度从 1850 年到 2014 年)的数值计算结果得出的 "轨迹 "被视为这些过程的现实化。研究了以下年平均参数的时间变化:(1) 海洋表面平均蒸发量,(2) 海洋降水量,(3) 海洋 "有效蒸发量"("蒸发量减去降水量 "的差值,平均等于从海洋到陆地的水输送量),(4) 陆地降水量,(5) 陆地表面蒸发量(蒸散),(6) 陆地 "有效降水量"(或 "气候径流":降水量减去蒸发量),以及 (7) 河流径流。研究表明,海洋降水量和陆地蒸发量在很大程度上分别抑制了海洋蒸发量和陆地降水量平均值在世俗时间尺度上的单调趋势。同时,这种抑制作用并没有延伸到过去几十年的趋势,这可能是由于在这一时期之前全球气温急剧上升和火山爆发共同造成的。对全球水交换各组成部分的模型轨迹的时间差异以及这种差异的存在本身进行分析,表明过程不确定性的增加与人类活动对气候系统的影响无关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Stochastic Approach to the Evolution of the Global Water Cycle: Results of Historical Experiments on the CMIP-6 Models

Stochastic Approach to the Evolution of the Global Water Cycle: Results of Historical Experiments on the CMIP-6 Models

Changes in the integral characteristics of the global water exchange, at climatic time scales, are considered as random functions (processes). “Trajectories” obtained as the results of numerical calculations on various, from 34 to 43, climate models (participating at the CMIP-6 “historical” experiment covering the period from 1850 through 2014) are taken as realizations of these processes. Temporal variations of following annually averaged parameters are studied: (1) average evaporation from the ocean surface, (2) precipitation over the ocean, (3) “effective evaporation” from the ocean (difference “evaporation minus precipitation”, on average equal to the water transport from the ocean to land), (4) precipitation over land, (5) evaporation (evapotranspiration) from the land surface, (6) “effective precipitation” over land (or “climatic runoff”: precipitation minus evaporation), and (7) river runoff. It is shown that precipitation over the ocean and evaporation from land largely suppress the monotonous trends in the mean values of evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over land, respectively, at secular time scales. At the same time, this damping does not extend to the trends of the last few decades, which may be due to a combination of a sharp increase in global temperature with explosive volcanic eruptions that preceded this period. An analysis of the time divergence in the model trajectories of each of the components of the global water exchange, as well as the very existence of such divergences, indicates an increase in the uncertainty of processes that is not associated with anthropogenic impact on the climate system.

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来源期刊
pure and applied geophysics
pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
240
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.
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