{"title":"基于生成式对抗网络的多变量时间序列预测新方法","authors":"Xiwen Qin, Hongyu Shi, Xiaogang Dong, Siqi Zhang","doi":"10.1111/exsy.13700","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Multivariate time series have more complex and high‐dimensional characteristics, which makes it difficult to analyze and predict the data accurately. In this paper, a new multivariate time series prediction method is proposed. This method is a generative adversarial networks (GAN) method based on Fourier transform and bi‐directional gated recurrent unit (Bi‐GRU). First, the Fourier transform is utilized to extend the data features, which helps the GAN to better learn the distributional features of the original data. Second, in order to guide the model to fully learn the distribution of the original time series data, Bi‐GRU is introduced as the generator of GAN. To solve the problems of mode collapse and gradient vanishing that exist in GAN, Wasserstein distance is used as the loss function of GAN. Finally, the proposed method is used for the prediction of air quality, stock price and RMB exchange rate. The experimental results show that the model can effectively predict the trend of the time series compared with the other nine baseline models. It significantly improves the accuracy and flexibility of multivariate time series forecasting and provides new ideas and methods for accurate time series forecasting in industrial, financial and environmental fields.","PeriodicalId":51053,"journal":{"name":"Expert Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A new method based on generative adversarial networks for multivariate time series prediction\",\"authors\":\"Xiwen Qin, Hongyu Shi, Xiaogang Dong, Siqi Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/exsy.13700\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Multivariate time series have more complex and high‐dimensional characteristics, which makes it difficult to analyze and predict the data accurately. In this paper, a new multivariate time series prediction method is proposed. This method is a generative adversarial networks (GAN) method based on Fourier transform and bi‐directional gated recurrent unit (Bi‐GRU). First, the Fourier transform is utilized to extend the data features, which helps the GAN to better learn the distributional features of the original data. Second, in order to guide the model to fully learn the distribution of the original time series data, Bi‐GRU is introduced as the generator of GAN. To solve the problems of mode collapse and gradient vanishing that exist in GAN, Wasserstein distance is used as the loss function of GAN. Finally, the proposed method is used for the prediction of air quality, stock price and RMB exchange rate. The experimental results show that the model can effectively predict the trend of the time series compared with the other nine baseline models. It significantly improves the accuracy and flexibility of multivariate time series forecasting and provides new ideas and methods for accurate time series forecasting in industrial, financial and environmental fields.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51053,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Expert Systems\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Expert Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/exsy.13700\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"计算机科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Expert Systems","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/exsy.13700","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
多变量时间序列具有更加复杂和高维的特征,这给准确分析和预测数据带来了困难。本文提出了一种新的多元时间序列预测方法。该方法是一种基于傅立叶变换和双向门控递归单元(Bi-GRU)的生成对抗网络(GAN)方法。首先,利用傅立叶变换扩展数据特征,这有助于 GAN 更好地学习原始数据的分布特征。其次,为了引导模型充分学习原始时间序列数据的分布,引入了 Bi-GRU 作为 GAN 的生成器。为了解决 GAN 中存在的模式崩溃和梯度消失问题,采用 Wasserstein 距离作为 GAN 的损失函数。最后,将所提出的方法用于空气质量、股票价格和人民币汇率的预测。实验结果表明,与其他九种基线模型相比,该模型能有效预测时间序列的趋势。它极大地提高了多元时间序列预测的准确性和灵活性,为工业、金融和环境领域的精确时间序列预测提供了新的思路和方法。
A new method based on generative adversarial networks for multivariate time series prediction
Multivariate time series have more complex and high‐dimensional characteristics, which makes it difficult to analyze and predict the data accurately. In this paper, a new multivariate time series prediction method is proposed. This method is a generative adversarial networks (GAN) method based on Fourier transform and bi‐directional gated recurrent unit (Bi‐GRU). First, the Fourier transform is utilized to extend the data features, which helps the GAN to better learn the distributional features of the original data. Second, in order to guide the model to fully learn the distribution of the original time series data, Bi‐GRU is introduced as the generator of GAN. To solve the problems of mode collapse and gradient vanishing that exist in GAN, Wasserstein distance is used as the loss function of GAN. Finally, the proposed method is used for the prediction of air quality, stock price and RMB exchange rate. The experimental results show that the model can effectively predict the trend of the time series compared with the other nine baseline models. It significantly improves the accuracy and flexibility of multivariate time series forecasting and provides new ideas and methods for accurate time series forecasting in industrial, financial and environmental fields.
期刊介绍:
Expert Systems: The Journal of Knowledge Engineering publishes papers dealing with all aspects of knowledge engineering, including individual methods and techniques in knowledge acquisition and representation, and their application in the construction of systems – including expert systems – based thereon. Detailed scientific evaluation is an essential part of any paper.
As well as traditional application areas, such as Software and Requirements Engineering, Human-Computer Interaction, and Artificial Intelligence, we are aiming at the new and growing markets for these technologies, such as Business, Economy, Market Research, and Medical and Health Care. The shift towards this new focus will be marked by a series of special issues covering hot and emergent topics.