Naomi Crump, Bo Markussen, Stefan Oehmcke, Christian Igel, Hans Skov-Petersen, Patrik Karlsson Nyed
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引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究分析了社会经济人口统计学(包括 Geomatic conzoom® 细分人口变量)以及建筑和财产登记信息作为与 100 m × 100 m 小区内住宅建筑火灾发生率相关的风险因素。在测试数据集上,逻辑回归模型的接收器工作曲线(ROC)为 0.74,精确度-召回曲线为 0.12。该模型确定了 19 个与住宅火灾风险相关的重要变量。模型中表现最好的前 5 个变量及其几率比如下:人数(OR 1.25)、多户/家庭住宅建筑类型(OR 1.20)、建筑数量(OR 1.18)、conzoom® C 型-乡村/农村社区(OR 0.85)、建筑年份(OR 0.87)。这些结果表明,社会经济因素在影响住宅区火灾易发性方面发挥着重要作用,并有助于确定资源分配的优先次序,以降低已识别风险因素群体的火灾易发性。
Modelling Residential Fire Vulnerability of Denmark
This study analyzes socio-economic demographics (including Geomatic conzoom® segmented demographic variables) as well as building and property registration information as risk factors in relation to the prevalence of residential building fires within 100 m × 100 m cells. The logistic regression model achieved a receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.74 and a precision-recall curve of 0.12 on the testing dataset. The model identifies 19 significant variables related to the risk of residential fire. The top 5 highest performing variables in our model and their odds ratios are the following: number of people (OR 1.25), Multi/family residence-building type (OR 1.20), number of buildings (OR 1.18), conzoom® Type C—Country/Rural Communities (OR 0.85), construction year (OR 0.87). These results indicate that socio-economic factors play a large role in influencing fire vulnerability within residential areas and can help prioritize resource allocation to reduce fire vulnerability in the identified risk factor groups.
期刊介绍:
Fire Technology publishes original contributions, both theoretical and empirical, that contribute to the solution of problems in fire safety science and engineering. It is the leading journal in the field, publishing applied research dealing with the full range of actual and potential fire hazards facing humans and the environment. It covers the entire domain of fire safety science and engineering problems relevant in industrial, operational, cultural, and environmental applications, including modeling, testing, detection, suppression, human behavior, wildfires, structures, and risk analysis.
The aim of Fire Technology is to push forward the frontiers of knowledge and technology by encouraging interdisciplinary communication of significant technical developments in fire protection and subjects of scientific interest to the fire protection community at large.
It is published in conjunction with the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and the Society of Fire Protection Engineers (SFPE). The mission of NFPA is to help save lives and reduce loss with information, knowledge, and passion. The mission of SFPE is advancing the science and practice of fire protection engineering internationally.