Giorgio Sperandio, Sara Pasquali, Gianfranco Pradolesi, Serena Baiocco, Federico Cavina, Gianni Gilioli
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In our framework, insect phenology is divided into a set of phases characterized by specific events (diapause induction and termination) and processes (development of diapausing and post‐diapausing biological stages). The phenology is simulated by a stage‐structured model based on the Kolmogorov equation, and the temperature‐dependent development rate functions are described by the Brière functional form. Our modelling framework was tested on a case study involving the prediction of the phenology of the codling moth, (<jats:italic>Cydia pomonella</jats:italic> L. 1758). Model calibration and validation were performed using four time‐series adult trap catch data collected in the Emilia Romagna Region from 2021 to 2023. The calibration procedure allowed obtaining realistic parameters related to the temperature threshold triggering diapause termination and the development rate function of post‐diapausing larvae and pupae. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
休眠是昆虫的一种重要生存策略,使它们能够保存能量并忍受不利条件。了解休眠如何影响昆虫物候学和种群动态对于有效管理害虫至关重要。害虫物候预测模型是提供重要信息以支持管理策略的宝贵工具。本研究提出了一个建模框架,用于在缺乏或有限描述停歇诱导和终止的变量和功能的生物信息时,将停歇纳入物候学模型。在我们的框架中,昆虫物候分为一系列阶段,这些阶段以特定事件(休眠诱导和终止)和过程(休眠和休眠后生物阶段的发展)为特征。物候学由基于科尔莫哥罗夫方程的阶段结构模型模拟,与温度相关的发育速率函数由布里埃函数形式描述。我们的建模框架在一个案例研究中进行了测试,该案例研究涉及鳕毒蛾(Cydia pomonella L. 1758)的物候预测。利用 2021 年至 2023 年在艾米利亚-罗马涅地区收集的四个时间序列成虫诱捕器捕获数据对模型进行了校准和验证。校准程序允许获得与触发休眠终止的温度阈值以及休眠后幼虫和蛹的发育率函数相关的现实参数。模型验证成功地模拟了三代成虫的初始出现和整体物候模式。本文提出的方法框架旨在促进在物候模型中引入休眠,同时提高其预测能力。根据模型对害虫物候状态的实际预测,该模型可作为规划和实施害虫监测与控制行动的准确和基于知识的工具。
An empirical model for predicting insects' diapause termination and phenology: An application to Cydia pomonella
Diapause is a vital survival strategy for insects, enabling them to conserve energy and endure adverse conditions. Understanding how diapause affects insect phenology and population dynamics is crucial for the effective management of insect pests. Predictive pest phenological models can be invaluable tools for providing essential information to support management strategies. This study presents a modelling framework to incorporate diapause into phenological models when biological information on variables regulating and functions describing diapause induction and termination are lacking or limited. In our framework, insect phenology is divided into a set of phases characterized by specific events (diapause induction and termination) and processes (development of diapausing and post‐diapausing biological stages). The phenology is simulated by a stage‐structured model based on the Kolmogorov equation, and the temperature‐dependent development rate functions are described by the Brière functional form. Our modelling framework was tested on a case study involving the prediction of the phenology of the codling moth, (Cydia pomonella L. 1758). Model calibration and validation were performed using four time‐series adult trap catch data collected in the Emilia Romagna Region from 2021 to 2023. The calibration procedure allowed obtaining realistic parameters related to the temperature threshold triggering diapause termination and the development rate function of post‐diapausing larvae and pupae. Model validation proved successful in simulating both the initial emergence and the overall phenological patterns of adults across the three observed generations. The methodological framework proposed here aims to facilitate the introduction of diapause in phenological models improving also their predictive abilities. The model may serve as an accurate and knowledge‐based tool for planning and implementing pest monitoring and control actions based on the realistic predictions provided by the model on the phenological status of the pest.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Applied Entomology publishes original articles on current research in applied entomology, including mites and spiders in terrestrial ecosystems.
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