全球变暖条件下哈德利环流的重新校准预测

IF 5.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ad751f

Mingna Wu, Chao Li, Zhongshi Zhang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候模式预测，在全球变暖的情况下，哈德利环流（HC）会减弱和扩张，但这些变化的幅度有相当大的差异。在这里，我们利用最新的耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段（CMIP6）的模式，说明了 HC 预测变化的差异是如何产生于各模式间平衡气候敏感性（ECS）的不确定性。ECS 较高的模式预测的静态稳定性增加的程度更大，因此 HC 变化也更大。使用最佳估计的 ECS 值 3 K（∼2.5-4.0 K）来约束 HC 预测，我们发现与 SSP5-8.5 情景下的多模式平均值相比，约束预测产生的北半球（南半球）HC 减弱（极向移动）减少了 15%（11%）。相应的预测不确定性分别降低了约 77.4% 和 75.6%。我们的结果表明，随着二氧化碳浓度的增加，碳氢化合物的变化小于预期。

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Recalibrated projections of the Hadley circulation under global warming

Climate models project a weakening and expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) under global warming but with considerable spread in the magnitude of these changes. Here, utilizing models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we illustrate how the variance in projected changes in the HC arises from equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) uncertainty across models. Models with higher ECS project a greater extent of static stability increase hence larger HC changes. Using the best estimate of ECS with value of 3 K (∼2.5–4.0 K) to constrain the HC projection, we reveal that the constrained projection yields a 15% (11%) decrease in the weakening (poleward shift) of the HC in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere compared to the multimodel mean under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The corresponding projection uncertainty is reduced by about 77.4% and 75.6%, respectively. Our results indicate a smaller-than-expected change in the HC in response to increased CO₂ concentrations.

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来源期刊

Environmental Research Letters 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

4.50%

发文量

763

审稿时长

4.3 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Research Letters (ERL) is a high-impact, open-access journal intended to be the meeting place of the research and policy communities concerned with environmental change and management. The journal''s coverage reflects the increasingly interdisciplinary nature of environmental science, recognizing the wide-ranging contributions to the development of methods, tools and evaluation strategies relevant to the field. Submissions from across all components of the Earth system, i.e. land, atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere, and exchanges between these components are welcome.