利用混合深度学习模型加强多变量时间序列预测

IF 2.6 4区 计算机科学 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Amal Mahmoud, Ammar Mohammed
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引用次数: 0

摘要

从金融和经济到天气预测和供应链管理,时间序列预测在各个领域都至关重要。传统的统计方法和机器学习模型已被广泛应用于这项任务。然而,它们在捕捉复杂的时间依赖性和处理多变量时间序列数据方面往往面临局限。近年来,深度学习模型已成为克服这些局限性的一种有前途的解决方案。本文研究了深度学习(特别是混合模型)如何增强时间序列预测并解决传统方法的不足。这种双重能力可处理多变量预测中错综复杂的变量相互依赖关系和非平稳性。我们的研究结果表明,混合模型实现了更低的错误率和更高的\(R^2\)值,这表明它们具有卓越的预测性能和泛化能力。这些架构通过结合卷积和递归模块,有效地提取了多变量时间序列中的空间特征和时间动态。本研究评估了用于多变量时间序列预测的深度学习模型,特别是混合架构。在交通流量和空气质量这两个真实世界数据集上,TCN-BiLSTM 模型取得了最佳的整体性能。在交通量数据集上,TCN-BiLSTM 模型的 R^2 得分为 0.976,在空气质量数据集上,它的 R^2 得分为 0.94。这些结果凸显了该模型在利用时序卷积网络(TCN)捕捉多尺度时间模式和双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)保留上下文信息的优势方面的有效性,从而提高了时间序列预测的准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Leveraging Hybrid Deep Learning Models for Enhanced Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Leveraging Hybrid Deep Learning Models for Enhanced Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is crucial in various domains, ranging from finance and economics to weather prediction and supply chain management. Traditional statistical methods and machine learning models have been widely used for this task. However, they often face limitations in capturing complex temporal dependencies and handling multivariate time series data. In recent years, deep learning models have emerged as a promising solution for overcoming these limitations. This paper investigates how deep learning, specifically hybrid models, can enhance time series forecasting and address the shortcomings of traditional approaches. This dual capability handles intricate variable interdependencies and non-stationarities in multivariate forecasting. Our results show that the hybrid models achieved lower error rates and higher \(R^2\) values, signifying their superior predictive performance and generalization capabilities. These architectures effectively extract spatial features and temporal dynamics in multivariate time series by combining convolutional and recurrent modules. This study evaluates deep learning models, specifically hybrid architectures, for multivariate time series forecasting. On two real-world datasets - Traffic Volume and Air Quality - the TCN-BiLSTM model achieved the best overall performance. For Traffic Volume, the TCN-BiLSTM model achieved an \(R^2\) score of 0.976, and for Air Quality, it reached an \(R^2\) score of 0.94. These results highlight the model’s effectiveness in leveraging the strengths of Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs) for capturing multi-scale temporal patterns and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTMs) for retaining contextual information, thereby enhancing the accuracy of time series forecasting.

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来源期刊
Neural Processing Letters
Neural Processing Letters 工程技术-计算机:人工智能
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
12.90%
发文量
392
审稿时长
2.8 months
期刊介绍: Neural Processing Letters is an international journal publishing research results and innovative ideas on all aspects of artificial neural networks. Coverage includes theoretical developments, biological models, new formal modes, learning, applications, software and hardware developments, and prospective researches. The journal promotes fast exchange of information in the community of neural network researchers and users. The resurgence of interest in the field of artificial neural networks since the beginning of the 1980s is coupled to tremendous research activity in specialized or multidisciplinary groups. Research, however, is not possible without good communication between people and the exchange of information, especially in a field covering such different areas; fast communication is also a key aspect, and this is the reason for Neural Processing Letters
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