Tiago Mendes-Neves, Luís Meireles, João Mendes-Moreira
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Towards a foundation large events model for soccer
This paper introduces the Large Events Model (LEM) for soccer, a novel deep learning framework for generating and analyzing soccer matches. The framework can simulate games from a given game state, with its primary output being the ensuing probabilities and events from multiple simulations. These can provide insights into match dynamics and underlying mechanisms. We discuss the framework’s design, features, and methodologies, including model optimization, data processing, and evaluation techniques. The models within this framework are developed to predict specific aspects of soccer events, such as event type, success likelihood, and further details. In an applied context, we showcase the estimation of xP+, a metric estimating a player’s contribution to the team’s points earned. This work ultimately enhances the field of sports event prediction and practical applications and emphasizes the potential for this kind of method.
期刊介绍:
Machine Learning serves as a global platform dedicated to computational approaches in learning. The journal reports substantial findings on diverse learning methods applied to various problems, offering support through empirical studies, theoretical analysis, or connections to psychological phenomena. It demonstrates the application of learning methods to solve significant problems and aims to enhance the conduct of machine learning research with a focus on verifiable and replicable evidence in published papers.