从劳动力市场角度看荷兰医院护理的可持续性:2000 年至 2021 年鲍莫尔效应的时间序列分析

IF 2.1 Q2 ECONOMICS
Jos Blank, Alex Van Heezik
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文重点从劳动力市场的角度探讨荷兰医院护理的可持续性。医院护理需求的持续增长以及随之而来的医院劳动力需求的增长可能会造成医疗和护理人员的永久性短缺,但同时也会影响其他经济部门的劳动力状况。我们通过对医院生产、工资和技术变化进行回归分析,分析了 2000 年至 2021 年间医院部门如何对劳动力市场造成压力。从原始数据来看,我们发现在整个研究期间,医院的生产量略有增长。令人震惊的是,与同一时期其他经济部门的工资相比,医院的工资出现了爆炸性增长,这似乎推翻了医院工资跟随其他部门工资增长的假设。一个令人担忧的结果来自于估算的鲍莫尔参数,它表明医院部门的生产率增长明显落后于其他部门。这意味着,除了医院护理需求和医院工资的发展外,医院部门还因生产率变化较低或为负数而造成严重问题。照此下去,在未来几十年内,医院对荷兰劳动力的压力将成倍增加。为避免出现这种情况,必须采取严厉措施,如实施奖惩措施以提高生产率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Sustainability of Hospital Care in The Netherlands from a Labour Market Perspective: A Time Series Analysis of the Baumol Effect between 2000 and 2021
In this paper, we focus on the sustainability of hospital care in The Netherlands from a labour market perspective. The continued increase in the demand for hospital care and the subsequent growth in the demand for hospital labour can cause permanent shortages of medical and nursing personnel, but can also affect labour conditions in other sectors of the economy. We analyse how the hospital sector put pressure on the labour market between 2000 and 2021 by applying a regression analysis to the share of hospital labour costs in the total economy on hospital production, wages and technical change. From the raw data, we observe a modest growth in hospital production over the whole research period. Strikingly, hospital wages underwent explosive growth compared to wages in other sectors of the economy in the same timeframe, seemingly disproving the hypothesis that hospital wages follow wages in other sectors. A worrisome result comes from the estimated Baumol parameter, which indicates that productivity growth in the hospital sector lagged significantly behind other sectors. This implies that the hospital sector, aside from developments in hospital care demand and hospital wages, is also causing a serious problem because of a low or negative productivity change. At this rate, we will stumble into the situation that the pressure of hospitals on the Dutch labour force will be doubled in the next decades. To avoid this situation, severe measures need to be taken, such as implementing incentives and sanctions to improve productivity.
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来源期刊
Economies
Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
11.50%
发文量
271
审稿时长
11 weeks
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