Risk Prediction Models for Gastric Cancer: A Scoping Review

Background: Gastric cancer is a significant contributor to the global cancer burden. Risk prediction models aim to estimate future risk based on current and past information, and can be utilized for risk stratification in population screening programs for gastric cancer. This review aims to explore the research design of existing models, as well as the methods, variables, and performance of model construction.
Methods: Six databases were searched through to November 4, 2023 to identify appropriate studies. PRISMA extension for scoping reviews and the Arksey and O’Malley framework were followed. Data sources included PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP, focusing on gastric cancer risk prediction model studies.
Results: A total of 29 articles met the inclusion criteria, from which 28 original risk prediction models were identified that met the analysis criteria. The risk prediction model is screened, and the data extracted includes research characteristics, prediction variables selection, model construction methods and evaluation indicators. The area under the curve (AUC) of the models ranged from 0.560 to 0.989, while the C-statistics varied between 0.684 and 0.940. The number of predictor variables is mainly concentrated between 5 to 11. The top 5 most frequently included variables were age, helicobacter pylori (Hp), precancerous lesion, pepsinogen (PG), sex, and smoking. Age and Hp were the most consistently included variables.
Conclusion: This review enhances understanding of current gastric cancer risk prediction research and its future directions. The findings provide a strong scientific basis and technical support for developing more accurate gastric cancer risk models. We expect that these conclusions will point the way for future research and clinical practice in this area to assist in the early prevention and treatment of gastric cancer.