High-density lipoprotein cholesterol trajectory and new-onset metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease incidence: a longitudinal study

Although high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exerts a significant influence on the development of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), the association of dynamic changes in HDL-C levels with the risk of MAFLD remains unclear. Thus, the aim of the current study was to explore the association between the changing trajectories of HDL-C and new-onset MAFLD. The findings of this study may provide a theoretical basis for future personalized intervention and prevention targeting MAFLD. A total of 1507 participants who met the inclusion criteria were recruited from a community-based physical examination population in Nanjing, China from 2017 to 2021. Group-based trajectory models were constructed to determine the heterogeneous HDL-C trajectories. The incidence of MAFLD in each group in 2022 was followed up, and the Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to investigate the associations between different HDL-C trajectories and the risk of new-onset MAFLD. The incidences of MAFLD in the low-stable, moderate-stable, moderate-high-stable, and high-stable groups of HDL-C trajectory were 26.5%, 13.8%, 7.2% and 2.6%, respectively. The incidence rate of MAFLD in the order of the above trajectory groups exhibited a decreasing trend (χ2 = 72.55, Ptrend<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, the risk of MAFLD onset in HDL-C low-stable group was still 5.421 times (95%CI: 1.303–22.554, P = 0.020) higher than that in the high-stable group. Subgroup analyses of the combined (moderate high-stable and high-stable groups combined), moderate-stable and low-stable groups showed that sex, age, and overweight/obesity did not affect the association between HDL-C trajectory and MAFLD risk. Persistently low HDL-C level is a risk factor for the onset of MAFLD. Long-term monitoring of HDL-C levels and timely intervention for those experiencing persistent declines are crucial for early prevention of MAFLD.