Estimated morbimortality and costs attributable to child and adolescent obesity in Brazil from 2024 to 2060: a multistate life table study

Introduction Childhood obesity is a major global public health issue globally and in Brazil. The impacts of childhood obesity include higher risk of disease during childhood and of obesity and non-communicable diseases in adulthood and represent an important epidemiological and economic burden to countries. Methods This study is based on the multistate life table modeling of different scenarios of change3s in the child and adolescent obesity on the estimated costs attributable to obesity and the epidemiological burden of obesity-related diseases. Results According to this study, if the current trends in childhood and adolescent obesity in Brazil continue, the prevalence will significantly increase across different age subgroups and for both sexes by 2060 and obesity among adults will nearly double, resulting in R$3.84 billion costs attributable to childhood and adolescent obesity to the Brazilian Unified Health System during this period. Alternatively, if obesity prevalence among children and adolescents is reduced and remains constant these direct costs could be reduced by R$1.05 to R$1.27 billion by 2060 and up to 244,600 incident cases and 70,800 deaths from obesity-related diseases could be prevented. Conclusion This study highlights that the costs of childhood obesity are not limited to the impacts on adult health and represent a relevant economic burden to the Brazilian National Health System and to families because of additional costs during childhood. Therefore, the prevention and control of childhood obesity is a public health priority that demands immediate and robust policies.