中国极端气象干旱事件(1951-2022 年):迁移模式、极端气温的多样性和十年变化

IF 6.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Zhenchen Liu, Wen Zhou, Xin Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近来,极端气象干旱肆虐中国,造成了严重的社会经济影响。尽管以往对干旱的时空特征和机理进行了研究,但有两个关键问题仍鲜有探讨。首先,亟需建立以事件为导向、具有详细时空演变的干旱年表。其次,需要定量研究同步极端温度的复杂迁移模式和多样性。因此,我们研究的主要成果如下。我们通过应用新开发的基于三维 DBSCAN 的检测方法(存于 https://doi.org/10.25452/figshare.plus.25512334),生成了一套以事件为导向的中国极端气象干旱数据集,并与历史地图集和专著进行了逐一验证。此外,考虑到纬度区和沿海/内陆位置的差异,我们还确定了独特的迁移模式(即静止/传播类型)并对其进行了排序。我们还分析了同步极端温度(如高温和低温)的多样性。值得注意的是,自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来,中国上空的高温干旱呈上升趋势,主要出现在北纬 30 度以南和北纬 40 度以北。所有干旱事件和同步极端气温事件均采用综合量级指数进行排名,其中 2022 年夏秋季长江高温干旱最为炎热。此外,基于梁-克莱曼信息流的因果关系分析强调了 PDO 和 AMO 影响干旱和极端温度覆盖率十年变化的关键区域。我们相信,本研究的成果可为序列机制探索和预测相关问题提供新的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Extreme Meteorological Drought Events over China (1951–2022): Migration Patterns, Diversity of Temperature Extremes, and Decadal Variations

Recently, extreme meteorological droughts have affected China, causing terrible socioeconomic impacts. Despite previous research on the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of drought, two crucial issues remain seldom explored. First, an event-oriented drought chronology with detailed spatiotemporal evolutions is urgently required. Second, the complex migration patterns and diversity of synchronous temperature extremes need to be quantitatively investigated. Accordingly, the main achievements of our investigation are as follows. We produced an event-oriented set of extreme meteorological droughts over China through the application of a newly developed 3D DBSCAN-based detection method (deposited on https://doi.org/10.25452/figshare.plus.25512334), which was verified with a historical atlas and monographs on a case-by-case basis. In addition, distinctive migration patterns (i.e., stationary/propagation types) are identified and ranked, considering the differences in latitudinal zones and coastal/inland locations. We also analyze the diversity of synchronous temperature extremes (e.g., hotness and coldness). Notably, an increasing trend in hot droughts occurred over China since the late 1990s, predominantly appearing to the south of 30°N and north of 40°N. All drought events and synchronous temperature extremes are ranked using a comprehensive magnitude index, with the 2022 summer-autumn Yangtze River hot drought being the hottest. Furthermore, Liang-Kleeman information flow-based causality analysis emphasizes key areas where the PDO and AMO influenced decadal variations in coverages of droughts and temperature extremes. We believe that the achievements in this study may offer new insights into sequential mechanism exploration and prediction-related issues.

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来源期刊
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
5.20%
发文量
154
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, launched in 1984, aims to rapidly publish original scientific papers on the dynamics, physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean. It covers the latest achievements and developments in the atmospheric sciences, including marine meteorology and meteorology-associated geophysics, as well as the theoretical and practical aspects of these disciplines. Papers on weather systems, numerical weather prediction, climate dynamics and variability, satellite meteorology, remote sensing, air chemistry and the boundary layer, clouds and weather modification, can be found in the journal. Papers describing the application of new mathematics or new instruments are also collected here.
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