{"title":"埃塞俄比亚青年生育过渡期的时间和强度的相关因素:多州多层次分析","authors":"Tariku Dejene, Eshetu Gurmu","doi":"10.1007/s12546-024-09344-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Delaying the transition to marriage and parenthood among youths has been a policy priority in many countries. Reproductive transitions in the life course of individuals still attract the attention of social and health researchers and practitioners. The study analyzed the timing and intensity of reproductive transitions of three synthetic birth cohorts of youths and its correlates in Ethiopia using data extracted from Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys. A multistate approach suits best to investigate transitions that occur across a series of states through time. A flexible parametric survival model was fit to identify potential correlates of the timing and intensities of reproductive transitions. Data management and analysis were done using STATA 14. Reproductive transitions among youths occur starting at age 18 with stronger transition intensities. Even though the transition showed a changing pattern, family formation took the major share of the transition. Despite shaping the timing of entry to union of youths, education did not significantly reduce the risk of the debut to sex. The results demonstrate that early premarital sexual initiation is the main precursor to social ills such as early and single parenthood and their consequences among Ethiopian youths. Due to the excessive risk that female youths have been exposed to, a persistent gender gap in reproductive transition has also been observed. An effort must be made to close the gender gap in reproductive transitions and lessen the negative effects of early premarital sexual initiation, notably the increased risks young females face.</p>","PeriodicalId":45624,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Correlates of timing and intensity of reproductive transition among Ethiopian youths: A multistate multilevel analysis\",\"authors\":\"Tariku Dejene, Eshetu Gurmu\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12546-024-09344-z\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Delaying the transition to marriage and parenthood among youths has been a policy priority in many countries. Reproductive transitions in the life course of individuals still attract the attention of social and health researchers and practitioners. The study analyzed the timing and intensity of reproductive transitions of three synthetic birth cohorts of youths and its correlates in Ethiopia using data extracted from Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys. A multistate approach suits best to investigate transitions that occur across a series of states through time. A flexible parametric survival model was fit to identify potential correlates of the timing and intensities of reproductive transitions. Data management and analysis were done using STATA 14. Reproductive transitions among youths occur starting at age 18 with stronger transition intensities. Even though the transition showed a changing pattern, family formation took the major share of the transition. Despite shaping the timing of entry to union of youths, education did not significantly reduce the risk of the debut to sex. The results demonstrate that early premarital sexual initiation is the main precursor to social ills such as early and single parenthood and their consequences among Ethiopian youths. Due to the excessive risk that female youths have been exposed to, a persistent gender gap in reproductive transition has also been observed. An effort must be made to close the gender gap in reproductive transitions and lessen the negative effects of early premarital sexual initiation, notably the increased risks young females face.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45624,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-024-09344-z\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"DEMOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-024-09344-z","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在许多国家,推迟青年的婚姻和生育过渡一直是政策优先考虑的问题。个人生命历程中的生殖转变仍然吸引着社会和健康研究人员及从业人员的关注。本研究利用从埃塞俄比亚人口健康调查中提取的数据,分析了埃塞俄比亚三个合成出生队列青年生殖转变的时间和强度及其相关因素。多状态方法最适合研究在一系列状态中随着时间发生的转变。我们采用了一个灵活的参数生存模型来确定生殖转变的时间和强度的潜在相关因素。数据管理和分析使用 STATA 14 进行。青少年的生殖转变从 18 岁开始,转变强度较大。尽管过渡模式在不断变化,但组建家庭占据了过渡的主要份额。尽管教育决定了青年进入婚姻的时间,但教育并没有显著降低初次性行为的风险。研究结果表明,过早的婚前性行为是埃塞俄比亚青年早育和单亲等社会弊病及其后果 的主要先兆。由于女青年面临的风险过大,在生殖转变方面也出现了持续的性别差距。必须努力缩小生殖过渡方面的性别差距,减少婚前过早性行为的负面影响,特别是年轻女性面临的更大风险。
Correlates of timing and intensity of reproductive transition among Ethiopian youths: A multistate multilevel analysis
Delaying the transition to marriage and parenthood among youths has been a policy priority in many countries. Reproductive transitions in the life course of individuals still attract the attention of social and health researchers and practitioners. The study analyzed the timing and intensity of reproductive transitions of three synthetic birth cohorts of youths and its correlates in Ethiopia using data extracted from Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys. A multistate approach suits best to investigate transitions that occur across a series of states through time. A flexible parametric survival model was fit to identify potential correlates of the timing and intensities of reproductive transitions. Data management and analysis were done using STATA 14. Reproductive transitions among youths occur starting at age 18 with stronger transition intensities. Even though the transition showed a changing pattern, family formation took the major share of the transition. Despite shaping the timing of entry to union of youths, education did not significantly reduce the risk of the debut to sex. The results demonstrate that early premarital sexual initiation is the main precursor to social ills such as early and single parenthood and their consequences among Ethiopian youths. Due to the excessive risk that female youths have been exposed to, a persistent gender gap in reproductive transition has also been observed. An effort must be made to close the gender gap in reproductive transitions and lessen the negative effects of early premarital sexual initiation, notably the increased risks young females face.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Population Research is a peer-reviewed, international journal which publishes papers on demography and population-related issues. Coverage is not restricted geographically. The Journal publishes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research and contributions to methodology. Submissions may take the form of original research papers, perspectives, review articles and shorter technical research notes. Special issues emanating from conferences and other meetings are also considered.