Failure mechanism of a massive fault–controlled rainfall–triggered landslide in northern Pakistan

A massive landslide occurred in Domeshi area, District Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, in two distinct phases: an initial movement on August 1, followed by complete failure on August 4, 2023. The landslide movement persisted for 96 h, with a runout distance of 500 m. The event destroyed numerous residential structures, impacting multiple families, and causing extensive damage to cultivated land and road infrastructure. To comprehensively understand the failure mechanisms, a detailed study was undertaken, encompassing site investigations, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photography, geotechnical and geophysical investigations, petrographic analysis, kinematics, and numerical simulations. The field evidence indicates that the active deformation along the Jhelum Fault (JF) within the landslide’s main body weakened the surrounding rock formations. Intense rainfall saturated pre-existing fractures, creating critical zones of weakness. Highly plastic clays along fault plane contributed significantly to volume changes, especially during and after rainfall events. Kinematic analysis identified bedding joints as prevalent failure planes for planar sliding. Geophysical survey revealed a layer of unconsolidated material extending 25–30 m below the landslide’s scarp, accompanied by various fractures, including a deep fracture (i.e., JF) up to 300 m depth. Petrographic investigations showed microfractures, micro faults, and intragranular mineral breakage, indicative of intense tectonic stresses. Slope stability analysis indicated factors of safety (FoS) and strength reduction factor (SRF) less than 1, suggesting the potential for further failure in the lower sections of the landslide. Multiple factors, including slope geometry, active tectonics, material composition, and anthropogenic factors (i.e., slope loading and cutting for road and building construction, improper drainage distribution), contributed to the landslide's occurrence, however, the rainfall emerged as the primary triggering event.