根据古腾堡-里克特关系推断的印度东北部(东喜马拉雅山)及其附近地区地震的重现期和发生概率

IF 1.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Timangshu Chetia, Bijit Kumar Choudhury, Ashim Gogoi, Namrata Saikia
{"title":"根据古腾堡-里克特关系推断的印度东北部(东喜马拉雅山)及其附近地区地震的重现期和发生概率","authors":"Timangshu Chetia, Bijit Kumar Choudhury, Ashim Gogoi, Namrata Saikia","doi":"10.1007/s12040-024-02375-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>North-Eastern (NE), India and its adjoining region is one of the sixth most seismically active regions of the world. In the present investigation, the return period of earthquake and probability of occurrence inferred from Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation was estimated for NE, India region and its vicinity. When we consider the entire NE, India region and its vicinity, it evidently suggested that the return period of earthquakes of 7 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.6 is short, which ranges from 32.73 to 162.59 years. It was observed that the earthquake occurrence from infinitesimally short interval t~0 for Mw~3.6–4 is embedded with 100% probability. The earthquakes of Mw~4.1–5.3 reach 100% in 10 years. Similarly, Mw~5.4–5.7 reaches to 100% in 20 years. Likewise, Mw~5.8–5.9, 6.0–6.1 and 6.2 reach ~100% in 30, 40 and 50 years, respectively. For large earthquakes of Mw~7.0–8.0, the probability of occurrence reaches &gt;80% in 100 years. This observation strongly indicates that the likelihood of earthquakes occurring in the north-eastern region of India and its surrounding areas tends to increase over time. Further, the region was divided into four zones, namely Block I (26.5–28.5ºN; 89–95ºE), Block II (26.5–28.5ºN; 95–97.5ºE), Block III (23–26.5ºN; 93–97.5ºE) and Block IV (23–26.5ºN; 89–93ºE) based on seismicity and the major tectonic domains of the region. In terms of return period based on GR-relation and stochastic observations, we may conclude that the risk associated with occurrence of earthquake is highest in Block IV, followed by Block III, Block I and Block II respectively. Further, a comparison of the probabilities of earthquake return period considering seismogenic depths along with hypocentral depth data for different blocks was investigated for a comprehensive understanding of seismic occurrences over time. However, overall, the patterns and trends observed remain consistent, emphasizing the seismic activity within each block and its associated return periods. The stochastic observations and findings are elaborately accentuated in the article.</p>","PeriodicalId":15609,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Earth System Science","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The return period and probabilities of earthquakes occurrence in North-East, India (Eastern-Himalayas) and its vicinity inferred from Gutenberg–Richter relation\",\"authors\":\"Timangshu Chetia, Bijit Kumar Choudhury, Ashim Gogoi, Namrata Saikia\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12040-024-02375-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>North-Eastern (NE), India and its adjoining region is one of the sixth most seismically active regions of the world. In the present investigation, the return period of earthquake and probability of occurrence inferred from Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation was estimated for NE, India region and its vicinity. When we consider the entire NE, India region and its vicinity, it evidently suggested that the return period of earthquakes of 7 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.6 is short, which ranges from 32.73 to 162.59 years. It was observed that the earthquake occurrence from infinitesimally short interval t~0 for Mw~3.6–4 is embedded with 100% probability. The earthquakes of Mw~4.1–5.3 reach 100% in 10 years. Similarly, Mw~5.4–5.7 reaches to 100% in 20 years. Likewise, Mw~5.8–5.9, 6.0–6.1 and 6.2 reach ~100% in 30, 40 and 50 years, respectively. For large earthquakes of Mw~7.0–8.0, the probability of occurrence reaches &gt;80% in 100 years. This observation strongly indicates that the likelihood of earthquakes occurring in the north-eastern region of India and its surrounding areas tends to increase over time. Further, the region was divided into four zones, namely Block I (26.5–28.5ºN; 89–95ºE), Block II (26.5–28.5ºN; 95–97.5ºE), Block III (23–26.5ºN; 93–97.5ºE) and Block IV (23–26.5ºN; 89–93ºE) based on seismicity and the major tectonic domains of the region. In terms of return period based on GR-relation and stochastic observations, we may conclude that the risk associated with occurrence of earthquake is highest in Block IV, followed by Block III, Block I and Block II respectively. Further, a comparison of the probabilities of earthquake return period considering seismogenic depths along with hypocentral depth data for different blocks was investigated for a comprehensive understanding of seismic occurrences over time. However, overall, the patterns and trends observed remain consistent, emphasizing the seismic activity within each block and its associated return periods. The stochastic observations and findings are elaborately accentuated in the article.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15609,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Earth System Science\",\"volume\":\"25 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Earth System Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-024-02375-3\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Earth System Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-024-02375-3","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

印度东北部(NE)及其毗邻地区是世界第六大地震活跃地区之一。在本次调查中,根据古腾堡-里克特(GR)关系推断,估算了印度东北部地区及其邻近地区的地震重现期和发生概率。从整个印度东北部地区及其周边地区来看,7 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.6 级地震的重现期很短,从 32.73 年到 162.59 年不等。据观察,Mw~3.6-4 的地震发生间隔 t~0 很短,嵌入概率为 100%。Mw~4.1-5.3 级地震在 10 年内发生的概率为 100%。同样,Mw~5.4-5.7 级地震在 20 年内达到 100%。同样,Mw~5.8-5.9、6.0-6.1 和 6.2 级地震分别在 30 年、40 年和 50 年后达到~100%。对于 Mw~7.0-8.0 的大地震,100 年内发生的概率达到 80%。这一观测结果有力地表明,印度东北部地区及其周边地区发生地震的可能性随着时间的推移呈上升趋势。此外,根据地震发生率和该地区的主要构造域,将该地区划分为四个区块,即区块 I(26.5-28.5ºN;89-95ºE)、区块 II(26.5-28.5ºN;95-97.5ºE)、区块 III(23-26.5ºN;93-97.5ºE)和区块 IV(23-26.5ºN;89-93ºE)。从基于 GR 相关性和随机观测的重现期来看,我们可以得出结论,与地震发生相关的风险在区块 IV 中最高,其次分别是区块 III、区块 I 和区块 II。此外,为全面了解不同区块的地震发生情况,还对不同区块的地震发生深度和次中心深度数据进行了地震重现期概率的比较研究。然而,总体而言,观察到的模式和趋势保持一致,强调了每个区块内的地震活动及其相关的重现期。文章详细阐述了随机观测和研究结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The return period and probabilities of earthquakes occurrence in North-East, India (Eastern-Himalayas) and its vicinity inferred from Gutenberg–Richter relation

The return period and probabilities of earthquakes occurrence in North-East, India (Eastern-Himalayas) and its vicinity inferred from Gutenberg–Richter relation

North-Eastern (NE), India and its adjoining region is one of the sixth most seismically active regions of the world. In the present investigation, the return period of earthquake and probability of occurrence inferred from Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation was estimated for NE, India region and its vicinity. When we consider the entire NE, India region and its vicinity, it evidently suggested that the return period of earthquakes of 7 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.6 is short, which ranges from 32.73 to 162.59 years. It was observed that the earthquake occurrence from infinitesimally short interval t~0 for Mw~3.6–4 is embedded with 100% probability. The earthquakes of Mw~4.1–5.3 reach 100% in 10 years. Similarly, Mw~5.4–5.7 reaches to 100% in 20 years. Likewise, Mw~5.8–5.9, 6.0–6.1 and 6.2 reach ~100% in 30, 40 and 50 years, respectively. For large earthquakes of Mw~7.0–8.0, the probability of occurrence reaches >80% in 100 years. This observation strongly indicates that the likelihood of earthquakes occurring in the north-eastern region of India and its surrounding areas tends to increase over time. Further, the region was divided into four zones, namely Block I (26.5–28.5ºN; 89–95ºE), Block II (26.5–28.5ºN; 95–97.5ºE), Block III (23–26.5ºN; 93–97.5ºE) and Block IV (23–26.5ºN; 89–93ºE) based on seismicity and the major tectonic domains of the region. In terms of return period based on GR-relation and stochastic observations, we may conclude that the risk associated with occurrence of earthquake is highest in Block IV, followed by Block III, Block I and Block II respectively. Further, a comparison of the probabilities of earthquake return period considering seismogenic depths along with hypocentral depth data for different blocks was investigated for a comprehensive understanding of seismic occurrences over time. However, overall, the patterns and trends observed remain consistent, emphasizing the seismic activity within each block and its associated return periods. The stochastic observations and findings are elaborately accentuated in the article.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Journal of Earth System Science
Journal of Earth System Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.30%
发文量
226
期刊介绍: The Journal of Earth System Science, an International Journal, was earlier a part of the Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences – Section A begun in 1934, and later split in 1978 into theme journals. This journal was published as Proceedings – Earth and Planetary Sciences since 1978, and in 2005 was renamed ‘Journal of Earth System Science’. The journal is highly inter-disciplinary and publishes scholarly research – new data, ideas, and conceptual advances – in Earth System Science. The focus is on the evolution of the Earth as a system: manuscripts describing changes of anthropogenic origin in a limited region are not considered unless they go beyond describing the changes to include an analysis of earth-system processes. The journal''s scope includes the solid earth (geosphere), the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (including cryosphere), and the biosphere; it also addresses related aspects of planetary and space sciences. Contributions pertaining to the Indian sub- continent and the surrounding Indian-Ocean region are particularly welcome. Given that a large number of manuscripts report either observations or model results for a limited domain, manuscripts intended for publication in JESS are expected to fulfill at least one of the following three criteria. The data should be of relevance and should be of statistically significant size and from a region from where such data are sparse. If the data are from a well-sampled region, the data size should be considerable and advance our knowledge of the region. A model study is carried out to explain observations reported either in the same manuscript or in the literature. The analysis, whether of data or with models, is novel and the inferences advance the current knowledge.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信