Spatial-temporal patterns and evolution of carbon storage in China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 1980 to 2020

Analyzing the changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems caused by land use changes is a crucial part of exploring the carbon cycle. In addition, enhancing carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is an effective and environmentally friendly measure to sequester anthropogenic carbon emissions, which is significant for achieving carbon neutrality and curbing global climate change. This paper uses land use data and carbon density tables with the InVEST model to obtain a carbon storage distribution map of China. It further applies land use response elasticity coefficients, Theil index multi-stage nested decomposition, and spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the spatial-temporal patterns, causes of changes, and evolution characteristics of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems from 1980 to 2020. The results show that the temporal changes in China’s carbon storage generally present an inverted S-curve, with an initial rapid decline followed by a slower decrease. Spatially, it features high levels in the northeast, low levels in the northwest, and a uniform distribution in the central and southern regions. The disturbance of land use type changes on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage has been effectively mitigated. The significant reduction in grassland area in the Southwest region is the main source of carbon storage loss during the study period, and the encroachment of construction land on arable land in large urban agglomerations is one of the important causes of carbon storage loss. The Theil index multi-stage nested decomposition results indicate that the overall difference in carbon storage in China has decreased, while differences among cities within provinces and among counties within cities have increased. The influence of natural factors on the distribution of carbon storage is weakening, whereas the impact of human activities is becoming more profound, enhancing its influence on the spatial distribution of carbon storage in China. From 1980 to 2000, the carbon density in coastal metropolises generally showed a declining trend. From 2000 to 2020, the carbon density in the central urban areas of eastern coastal city clusters gradually showed an upward trend and continued to expand outward, revealing to some extent the “Environmental Kuznets Curve” characteristic in the development process of urban carbon storage. Therefore, in future ecological construction, the government should fully consider the impact of land management planning on carbon storage in different regions, promote the efficient use and standardized management of land, and strive to cross the “Environmental Kuznets Curve” inflection point of carbon storage as soon as possible.