Study on the Response Mechanism of Climate and Land Use Change to Evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin

Research on evapotranspiration and its drivers in the Aksu River Basin from the perspectives of climate change and land use is of great significance for promoting the efficient use and precise allocation of its water resources. Theil-Sen median trend analysis (T-S) and the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test (M-K), in addition to correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, complex correlation analysis, and driving-factor zoning principles, were used to examine the characteristics of the spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and to explore the driving mechanism of the changes in evapotranspiration. The results indicated that the range of fluctuations in the multiyear average evapotranspiration in the Aksu River Basin from 2001 to 2020 was between 481.58 and 772.37 mm/a, which showed the spatial distribution characteristics of being high in the west and central part of the basin, and low in the north and south of the basin. The positive correlation between evapotranspiration and precipitation was stronger, and the negative correlations with temperature and relative humidity were stronger. The change in evapotranspiration in cultivated land is mainly driven by precipitation and relative humidity × precipitation; for grassland, the main drivers were relative humidity and precipitation × relative humidity; for woodland, the main drivers were relative humidity and other climatic factors; and for other land types, the main drivers were other climatic factors.