Clinical and economic impact of first-line or drug-naïve catheter ablation and delayed second-line catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation using a patient-level simulation model.

AIMS To determine the clinical and economic implications of first-line or drug-naïve catheter ablation compared to antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs), or shorter AADs-to-Ablation time (AAT) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients in France and Italy, using a patient level-simulation model. MATERIALS AND METHODS A patient-level simulation model was used to simulate clinical pathways for AF patients using published data and expert opinion. The probabilities of adverse events (AEs) were dependent on treatment and/or disease status. Analysis 1 compared scenarios of treating 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% of patients with first-line ablation and the remainder with AADs. In Analysis 2, scenarios compared the impact of delaying transition to second-line ablation by 1 or 2 years. RESULTS Over 10 years, increasing first-line ablation from 0% to 100% (versus AAD treatment) decreased stroke by 12%, HF hospitalization by 29%, and cardioversions by 45% in both countries. As the rate of first-line ablation increased from 0% to 100%, the overall 10-year per-patient costs increased from €13,034 to €14,450 in Italy and from €11,944 to €16,942 in France. For both countries, the scenario with no delay in second-line ablation had fewer AEs compared to the scenarios where ablation was delayed after AAD failure. Increasing rates of first-line or drug-naïve catheter ablation, and shorter AAT, resulted in higher cumulative controlled patient years on rhythm control therapy. LIMITATIONS The model includes assumptions based on the best available clinical data, which may differ from real-world results, however, sensitivity analyses were included to combat parameter ambiguity. Additionally, the model represents a payer perspective and does not include societal costs, providing a conservative approach. CONCLUSION Increased first-line or drug-naïve catheter ablation, and shorter AAT, could increase the proportion of patients with controlled AF and reduce AEs, offsetting the small investment required in total AF costs over 10 years in Italy and France.