{"title":"贝叶斯法识别和估算法国铀矿工人最新队列(1946-2014 年)中与氡相关的癌症死亡危险增加率","authors":"Julie Fendler, Chantal Guihenneuc, Sophie Ancelet","doi":"10.1007/s00420-024-02098-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Objective</h3><p>A recent update of the French cohort of uranium miners added seven years of follow-up data. We use these new data to look for new possible radon-related increased risks and refine the estimation of the potential association between cumulative radon exposure and four cancer sites: lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer and leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, which is not radiation-induced).</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>Several parametric survival models are proposed, fitted and compared under the Bayesian paradigm, to perform new and original exposure-risk analyses. In line with recent UNSCEAR recommendations, we consider time-related effect modifiers and exposure rate as potential effect modifying factors. We use Bayesian model selection criteria to identify radon-related increased hazard rates.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>Under the assumption of a linear exposure-risk relationship, we found a substantial evidence for a strictly positive effect of cumulative radon exposure on the hazard rate of death by lung cancer among French uranium miners. Given the current available data under the assumptions of a linear or log-linear exposure-risk relationship, it is not possible to conclude in favour of the absence or the existence of a strictly positive effect of chronic exposure to radon on the hazard rate of death by kidney cancer. Regarding death by brain and CNS cancer, there is a substantial evidence for the absence of radon-related effect. Finally, under the assumption of a log-linear exposure-risk relationship, a small positive radon-related effect appears when looking at the risk of death by leukemia (excluding CLL).</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusion</h3><p>This study investigates the existence of radon-related increased risk of death by lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and CNS cancer and leukemia under a Bayesian framework and assumptions of linear and log-linear exposure-risk relationships. If there is no doubt in the interpretation of the results for lung cancer and brain and CNS cancer, the conclusion is less clear-cut in the case of kidney cancer and leukemia (excluding CLL). A future update of the French cohort, increasing the follow-up time for miners, may help to reach a clearer conclusion for these two cancer sites.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bayesian identification and estimation of radon-related increased hazard rates of cancer death in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946–2014)\",\"authors\":\"Julie Fendler, Chantal Guihenneuc, Sophie Ancelet\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00420-024-02098-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Objective</h3><p>A recent update of the French cohort of uranium miners added seven years of follow-up data. We use these new data to look for new possible radon-related increased risks and refine the estimation of the potential association between cumulative radon exposure and four cancer sites: lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer and leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, which is not radiation-induced).</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Methods</h3><p>Several parametric survival models are proposed, fitted and compared under the Bayesian paradigm, to perform new and original exposure-risk analyses. In line with recent UNSCEAR recommendations, we consider time-related effect modifiers and exposure rate as potential effect modifying factors. We use Bayesian model selection criteria to identify radon-related increased hazard rates.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Results</h3><p>Under the assumption of a linear exposure-risk relationship, we found a substantial evidence for a strictly positive effect of cumulative radon exposure on the hazard rate of death by lung cancer among French uranium miners. Given the current available data under the assumptions of a linear or log-linear exposure-risk relationship, it is not possible to conclude in favour of the absence or the existence of a strictly positive effect of chronic exposure to radon on the hazard rate of death by kidney cancer. Regarding death by brain and CNS cancer, there is a substantial evidence for the absence of radon-related effect. Finally, under the assumption of a log-linear exposure-risk relationship, a small positive radon-related effect appears when looking at the risk of death by leukemia (excluding CLL).</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Conclusion</h3><p>This study investigates the existence of radon-related increased risk of death by lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and CNS cancer and leukemia under a Bayesian framework and assumptions of linear and log-linear exposure-risk relationships. If there is no doubt in the interpretation of the results for lung cancer and brain and CNS cancer, the conclusion is less clear-cut in the case of kidney cancer and leukemia (excluding CLL). A future update of the French cohort, increasing the follow-up time for miners, may help to reach a clearer conclusion for these two cancer sites.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13761,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-024-02098-4\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-024-02098-4","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bayesian identification and estimation of radon-related increased hazard rates of cancer death in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946–2014)
Objective
A recent update of the French cohort of uranium miners added seven years of follow-up data. We use these new data to look for new possible radon-related increased risks and refine the estimation of the potential association between cumulative radon exposure and four cancer sites: lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer and leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, which is not radiation-induced).
Methods
Several parametric survival models are proposed, fitted and compared under the Bayesian paradigm, to perform new and original exposure-risk analyses. In line with recent UNSCEAR recommendations, we consider time-related effect modifiers and exposure rate as potential effect modifying factors. We use Bayesian model selection criteria to identify radon-related increased hazard rates.
Results
Under the assumption of a linear exposure-risk relationship, we found a substantial evidence for a strictly positive effect of cumulative radon exposure on the hazard rate of death by lung cancer among French uranium miners. Given the current available data under the assumptions of a linear or log-linear exposure-risk relationship, it is not possible to conclude in favour of the absence or the existence of a strictly positive effect of chronic exposure to radon on the hazard rate of death by kidney cancer. Regarding death by brain and CNS cancer, there is a substantial evidence for the absence of radon-related effect. Finally, under the assumption of a log-linear exposure-risk relationship, a small positive radon-related effect appears when looking at the risk of death by leukemia (excluding CLL).
Conclusion
This study investigates the existence of radon-related increased risk of death by lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and CNS cancer and leukemia under a Bayesian framework and assumptions of linear and log-linear exposure-risk relationships. If there is no doubt in the interpretation of the results for lung cancer and brain and CNS cancer, the conclusion is less clear-cut in the case of kidney cancer and leukemia (excluding CLL). A future update of the French cohort, increasing the follow-up time for miners, may help to reach a clearer conclusion for these two cancer sites.
期刊介绍:
International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health publishes Editorials, Review Articles, Original Articles, and Letters to the Editor. It welcomes any manuscripts dealing with occupational or ambient environmental problems, with a special interest in research at the interface of occupational health and clinical medicine. The scope ranges from Biological Monitoring to Dermatology, from Fibers and Dust to Human Toxicology, from Nanomaterials and Ultra-fine Dust to Night- and Shift Work, from Psycho-mental Distress and Burnout to Vibrations. A complete list of topics can be found on the right-hand side under For authors and editors.
In addition, all papers should be based on present-day standards and relate to:
-Clinical and epidemiological studies on morbidity and mortality
-Clinical epidemiological studies on the parameters relevant to the estimation of health risks
-Human experimental studies on environmental health effects. Animal experiments are only acceptable if relevant to pathogenic aspects.
-Methods for studying the topics mentioned above.