Ignacio Ferro, Walter Lopez, Flavia Cassinelli, Sara Aguirre, Griet A. E. Cuyckens, Sebastián Kehl, Daira Abán-Moreyra, Paola Castillo, Carla Bellomo, José Gil, Valeria P. Martinez
{"title":"通过阿根廷西北部流行地区啮齿动物数量的快速同步增长预测汉坦病毒肺综合征的爆发:基于气候和啮齿动物监测数据建立疾病预警系统","authors":"Ignacio Ferro, Walter Lopez, Flavia Cassinelli, Sara Aguirre, Griet A. E. Cuyckens, Sebastián Kehl, Daira Abán-Moreyra, Paola Castillo, Carla Bellomo, José Gil, Valeria P. Martinez","doi":"10.3390/pathogens13090753","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an American emerging disease caused by the rodent-borne virus genus Orthohantavirus (Family: Hantaviridae: Order: Elliovirales Class: Bunyaviricetes). In Argentina, almost half of the HPS infections occur in the northwestern endemic region. In this study, we monitored rodent abundance during 2022 and 2023 in three sites with different sampling methods (removal trapping, live trapping and hunted rodents by domestic cats) to evaluate their relationship with human infections. We found a similar pattern of variation in rodent abundance across time, and particularly a synchronous rise of rodent abundance that anticipated an HPS outbreak in 2023. Our dynamic regression models revealed a positive relationship between HPS cases and rodent abundance with a three-month lag, as well as rainfall with an eight-month lag. Our results provide a framework for the planning and implementation of public health prevention campaigns based on climatology and rodent monitoring. Domestic cats bringing rodents into houses can be an overlooked risk factor, particularly if viral shedding of infected rodents is magnified by stress. HPS is a disease of public health concern due to its high mortality rate, the lack of a specific therapeutic treatment and no vaccine. Thus, prevention of infections is of the utmost importance.","PeriodicalId":19758,"journal":{"name":"Pathogens","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Outbreak Anticipation by a Rapid Synchronous Increase in Rodent Abundance in the Northwestern Argentina Endemic Region: Towards an Early Warning System for Disease Based on Climate and Rodent Surveillance Data\",\"authors\":\"Ignacio Ferro, Walter Lopez, Flavia Cassinelli, Sara Aguirre, Griet A. E. Cuyckens, Sebastián Kehl, Daira Abán-Moreyra, Paola Castillo, Carla Bellomo, José Gil, Valeria P. Martinez\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/pathogens13090753\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an American emerging disease caused by the rodent-borne virus genus Orthohantavirus (Family: Hantaviridae: Order: Elliovirales Class: Bunyaviricetes). In Argentina, almost half of the HPS infections occur in the northwestern endemic region. In this study, we monitored rodent abundance during 2022 and 2023 in three sites with different sampling methods (removal trapping, live trapping and hunted rodents by domestic cats) to evaluate their relationship with human infections. We found a similar pattern of variation in rodent abundance across time, and particularly a synchronous rise of rodent abundance that anticipated an HPS outbreak in 2023. Our dynamic regression models revealed a positive relationship between HPS cases and rodent abundance with a three-month lag, as well as rainfall with an eight-month lag. Our results provide a framework for the planning and implementation of public health prevention campaigns based on climatology and rodent monitoring. Domestic cats bringing rodents into houses can be an overlooked risk factor, particularly if viral shedding of infected rodents is magnified by stress. HPS is a disease of public health concern due to its high mortality rate, the lack of a specific therapeutic treatment and no vaccine. Thus, prevention of infections is of the utmost importance.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19758,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Pathogens\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Pathogens\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens13090753\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MICROBIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pathogens","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens13090753","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MICROBIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Outbreak Anticipation by a Rapid Synchronous Increase in Rodent Abundance in the Northwestern Argentina Endemic Region: Towards an Early Warning System for Disease Based on Climate and Rodent Surveillance Data
Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an American emerging disease caused by the rodent-borne virus genus Orthohantavirus (Family: Hantaviridae: Order: Elliovirales Class: Bunyaviricetes). In Argentina, almost half of the HPS infections occur in the northwestern endemic region. In this study, we monitored rodent abundance during 2022 and 2023 in three sites with different sampling methods (removal trapping, live trapping and hunted rodents by domestic cats) to evaluate their relationship with human infections. We found a similar pattern of variation in rodent abundance across time, and particularly a synchronous rise of rodent abundance that anticipated an HPS outbreak in 2023. Our dynamic regression models revealed a positive relationship between HPS cases and rodent abundance with a three-month lag, as well as rainfall with an eight-month lag. Our results provide a framework for the planning and implementation of public health prevention campaigns based on climatology and rodent monitoring. Domestic cats bringing rodents into houses can be an overlooked risk factor, particularly if viral shedding of infected rodents is magnified by stress. HPS is a disease of public health concern due to its high mortality rate, the lack of a specific therapeutic treatment and no vaccine. Thus, prevention of infections is of the utmost importance.
期刊介绍:
Pathogens (ISSN 2076-0817) publishes reviews, regular research papers and short notes on all aspects of pathogens and pathogen-host interactions. There is no restriction on the length of the papers. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical research in as much detail as possible. Full experimental and/or methodical details must be provided for research articles.