利用观测系统数据和非线性回归对特拉华湾牡蛎的河口底部盐度进行后报

IF 2.3 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Archi Howlader, Elizabeth W. North, Daphne Munroe, Matthew P. Hare
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引用次数: 0

摘要

盐度是影响沿岸和河口鱼类和贝类种群动态的一个主要环境因素,但对特定采样站的盐度进行后报的经验方法并不普遍。本研究的具体目标是预测在特拉华湾采样站采集的幼年和成年牡蛎(Crassostrea virginica)所经历的盐度。为此,利用观测系统数据建立了经验关系,以预测五个牡蛎床站的盐度。然后应用这些关系构建牡蛎一生中的盐度暴露指数。三个独立的盐度数据源与观测系统数据一起用于构建和验证预测关系。将模型预测结果与三个独立数据集进行比较时,模型的均方根误差(RMSE)在 0.5 至 1.6 psu 之间。结果表明,来自特拉华湾源头附近观测系统的数据可用来预测牡蛎床站的盐度,预测范围在± 2 psu之内,最远可达河口下游 39 公里处。当应用这些模型通过连续低于 5 psu 的天数来估算 2 岁牡蛎的低盐度暴露时,指数表明,相距仅 31 公里的站点的牡蛎的低盐度暴露可能相差多达 42 天。利用观测系统数据对盐度进行后报的方法可用于进一步了解其他河口的盐分分布以及低盐度暴露对生物的影响,尤其是与底层相关的物种。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Hindcasting Estuarine Bottom Salinity Using Observing Systems Data and Nonlinear Regression, as Applied to Oysters in Delaware Bay

Hindcasting Estuarine Bottom Salinity Using Observing Systems Data and Nonlinear Regression, as Applied to Oysters in Delaware Bay

Salinity is a major environmental factor that influences the population dynamics of fish and shellfish along coasts and estuaries, yet empirical methods for hindcasting salinity at specific sampling stations are not widely available. The specific aim of this research was to predict the salinity experienced by juvenile and adult oysters (Crassostrea virginica) collected at sampling stations in Delaware Bay. To do so, empirical relationships were created to predict salinity at five oyster bed stations using observing systems data. These relationships were then applied to construct indices of salinity exposure over an oyster’s lifetime. Three independent salinity data sources were used in conjunction with observing systems data to construct and validate the predictive relationships. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the models ranged from 0.5 to 1.6 psu when model predictions were compared with the three independent data sets. Results demonstrated that data from an observing system near the head of Delaware Bay could be used to predict salinity within ± 2 psu at oyster bed stations as far down-estuary as 39 km. When these models were applied to estimate low salinity exposure of 2-year-old oysters via the metric of consecutive days below 5 psu, the indices suggested that there could be as much as a 42-day difference in low salinity exposure for oysters at stations just 31 km apart. The approach of using observing systems data to hindcast salinity could be applied to advance understanding of salt distribution and the effect of low salinity exposure on organisms in other estuaries, especially bottom-associated species.

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来源期刊
Estuaries and Coasts
Estuaries and Coasts 环境科学-海洋与淡水生物学
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
11.10%
发文量
107
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Estuaries and Coasts is the journal of the Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation (CERF). Begun in 1977 as Chesapeake Science, the journal has gradually expanded its scope and circulation. Today, the journal publishes scholarly manuscripts on estuarine and near coastal ecosystems at the interface between the land and the sea where there are tidal fluctuations or sea water is diluted by fresh water. The interface is broadly defined to include estuaries and nearshore coastal waters including lagoons, wetlands, tidal fresh water, shores and beaches, but not the continental shelf. The journal covers research on physical, chemical, geological or biological processes, as well as applications to management of estuaries and coasts. The journal publishes original research findings, reviews and perspectives, techniques, comments, and management applications. Estuaries and Coasts will consider properly carried out studies that present inconclusive findings or document a failed replication of previously published work. Submissions that are primarily descriptive, strongly place-based, or only report on development of models or new methods without detailing their applications fall outside the scope of the journal.
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