Min Li, Beibei Wang, Lan Wang, Ling Tong, Gang Zhao, Biao Wang, Jingli Guo
{"title":"高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇导致的缺血性心脏病死亡率的动态趋势:连接点分析和带有预测的年龄段队列分析","authors":"Min Li, Beibei Wang, Lan Wang, Ling Tong, Gang Zhao, Biao Wang, Jingli Guo","doi":"10.1186/s12944-024-02274-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Data on IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the global disease burden database. Joinpoint software was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). An age‒period‒cohort model was used to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort on these changes. The Bayesian framework was used to predict IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 2022 to 2040. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C decreased from 50. 479 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 32.286 per 100,000 people in 2021, and ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C was higher in males than in females. The longitudinal age curves of the overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a monotonic upward trend, especially after 65 years of age. The period and cohort effect relative risk (RR) values of overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a downward trend. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C is predicted to show a downward trend, and male IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C is expected to be higher than that of females. This study revealed a sustained decrease in IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C over three decades, with a continued decline expected. Despite this, gender disparities persist, with males experiencing higher mortality rates and elderly individuals remaining a vulnerable group.","PeriodicalId":18073,"journal":{"name":"Lipids in Health and Disease","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol: a joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort analysis with predictions\",\"authors\":\"Min Li, Beibei Wang, Lan Wang, Ling Tong, Gang Zhao, Biao Wang, Jingli Guo\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s12944-024-02274-y\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Data on IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the global disease burden database. Joinpoint software was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). An age‒period‒cohort model was used to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort on these changes. The Bayesian framework was used to predict IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 2022 to 2040. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C decreased from 50. 479 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 32.286 per 100,000 people in 2021, and ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C was higher in males than in females. The longitudinal age curves of the overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a monotonic upward trend, especially after 65 years of age. The period and cohort effect relative risk (RR) values of overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a downward trend. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C is predicted to show a downward trend, and male IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C is expected to be higher than that of females. This study revealed a sustained decrease in IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C over three decades, with a continued decline expected. Despite this, gender disparities persist, with males experiencing higher mortality rates and elderly individuals remaining a vulnerable group.\",\"PeriodicalId\":18073,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Lipids in Health and Disease\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Lipids in Health and Disease\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12944-024-02274-y\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Lipids in Health and Disease","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12944-024-02274-y","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol: a joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort analysis with predictions
The purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Data on IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the global disease burden database. Joinpoint software was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). An age‒period‒cohort model was used to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort on these changes. The Bayesian framework was used to predict IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 2022 to 2040. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C decreased from 50. 479 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 32.286 per 100,000 people in 2021, and ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C was higher in males than in females. The longitudinal age curves of the overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a monotonic upward trend, especially after 65 years of age. The period and cohort effect relative risk (RR) values of overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a downward trend. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C is predicted to show a downward trend, and male IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C is expected to be higher than that of females. This study revealed a sustained decrease in IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C over three decades, with a continued decline expected. Despite this, gender disparities persist, with males experiencing higher mortality rates and elderly individuals remaining a vulnerable group.
期刊介绍:
Lipids in Health and Disease is an open access, peer-reviewed, journal that publishes articles on all aspects of lipids: their biochemistry, pharmacology, toxicology, role in health and disease, and the synthesis of new lipid compounds.
Lipids in Health and Disease is aimed at all scientists, health professionals and physicians interested in the area of lipids. Lipids are defined here in their broadest sense, to include: cholesterol, essential fatty acids, saturated fatty acids, phospholipids, inositol lipids, second messenger lipids, enzymes and synthetic machinery that is involved in the metabolism of various lipids in the cells and tissues, and also various aspects of lipid transport, etc. In addition, the journal also publishes research that investigates and defines the role of lipids in various physiological processes, pathology and disease. In particular, the journal aims to bridge the gap between the bench and the clinic by publishing articles that are particularly relevant to human diseases and the role of lipids in the management of various diseases.