Anticipating the impacts of climate change on diaptomid copepod richness in the La Plata Basin: insights for conservation planning and climate refuge identification

Global biodiversity faces imminent threats from climate change, altering species distribution. This study forecasts climate change's impact on diaptomid copepods richness in the La Plata Basin, identifying crucial refuge areas. We hypothesized that rising temperatures will exert in a negative impact on copepod diversity. We utilized climatic and environmental variables to model the geographic distribution diaptomid copepod species. The model forecasts unveiled a contraction in copepod distribution under future climate scenarios. The outcomes from our species richness analysis suggest a potential loss of diaptomid copepod species in the end of the century. Interestingly, certain tributaries of the Paraná River, integral components of the La Plata basin, emerge as prospective climate refuges for these species by 2080. Given the susceptibility of many rivers in the basin to damming and the anticipated severe impacts of climate change on these environments, the findings hold practical implications for strategic conservation planning, emphasizing the importance of maintaining rivers free from dams and promoting the restoration of degraded areas within identified climate refuges. By elucidating the potential consequences of climate change on diaptomid copepod populations, our research contributes valuable knowledge to the broader scientific understanding of the intricate interplay between climate change and freshwater biodiversity.