Cumulative collision risk and population-level consequences of industrial wind-power plant development for two vulture species: A quantitative warning

Prioritizing renewable energy generation over the conservation of natural habitats and species on a large spatial scale, leads to the paradox of impacting biodiversity to mitigate climate change. In this study, we aim at quantifying the long-term demographic impact of the excess mortality caused by collisions with wind turbines on the populations of two vulture species of conservation concern. Using long-term monitoring data and Integrated Population Models (IPMs), we quantified demographic parameters and projected population trends under various wind power development scenarios. Our findings indicate that even under our most optimistic scenarios, annual collision mortality could reach up to 30 % of the current Cinereous vulture population and 7 % of the Griffon vulture population. Without further wind power expansion, both vulture populations are predicted to remain stable or increase over the next 20 years. However, the addition of 85 wind turbines is likely to drive the Cinereous vulture to local extinction within 18 years and significantly slow the growth of the Griffon vulture population. Scenarios involving larger numbers of turbines could result in the extinction of both species within two to five years for Cinereous vultures and up to 20 years for Griffon vultures, depending on space use intensity. Our results underscore the vulnerability of long-lived species to excess mortality and highlight the need for comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) that incorporate population dynamics analyses. Effective conservation strategies must include rigorous pre- and post-construction monitoring, the availability of monitoring data, and cumulative impact assessments that consider the entire foraging range of these species. Additionally, strategic planning to avoid critical vulture habitats and implementing mitigation measures in buffer zones are essential. This study emphasizes the necessity of integrating biodiversity considerations into renewable energy planning to balance the goals of energy production and wildlife conservation.