Xinchang ‘Cathy’ Li, Lei Zhao, Yue Qin, Keith Oleson, Yiwen Zhang
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Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks
Climate-driven impacts on future urban heating and cooling (H&C) energy demand are critical to sustainable energy planning. Existing global H&C projections are predominantly made without accounting for future two-way biophysical feedbacks between urban climate and H&C use. Here, using a hybrid modelling framework we show that the prevalent degree-days methods misrepresent the magnitude, nonlinearity and uncertainty in the climate-driven projections of H&C energy demand changes due to the missing two-way feedbacks. We find a 220% increase (47% decrease) in cooling (heating) energy demand with amplified uncertainty by 2099 under a very high emission scenario, roughly twice that projected by previous methods. The spatially diverse H&C demand responses to the warming climates highlight the disparate challenges faced by individual cities and necessitate urban energy planning accounting for local climate–energy interactions. Our study underscores the critical necessity of explicit and dynamic modelling of urban H&C energy use for climate-sensitive energy planning. Climate change affects the energy demand for heating and cooling in cities, which in turn leads to additional urban warming. Here, the authors show that when including such two-way biophysical feedbacks, the cooling (heating) energy demand more than doubles (is halved) under high emissions.
期刊介绍:
Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large.
The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests.
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Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.