Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species

The redistribution of fish stocks induced by climate change is expected to have global implications for fisheries, particularly the poleward shifts of species. However, the responses of different fishing gears and fleet of countries and their potential attempts to spatially redistribute catches remain unknown. Here, by developing environmental niche models for industrial fisheries of 82 countries and 13 fishing gears, we demonstrate that without management, global fleets are expected to shift poleward by the end of the century. This is driven by polar fishing gears moving to higher Arctic areas and tropical fishing gears expanding both within the tropics and poleward. Most nations, particularly tropical ones, may struggle to track these shifts, as they largely rely on coastal and nearshore fishing gears, such as trawlers. Our findings highlight the need to consider future shifts of fisheries in their management, to ensure the long-term sustainability and accessibility of fish stocks. The authors consider environmental niche models for the current and future distribution of fishing fleets and gear from 82 countries. Despite overall redistribution of fleets to the poles, they show that most nations—particularly tropical ones—may struggle to track expected fish stock shifts.