Predictors of long-term clinical outcomes after TIPS: An ALTA group study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS While transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is traditionally considered a bridge to liver transplant (LT), some patients achieve long-term transplant-free survival (TFS) with TIPS alone. Prognosis and need for LT should not only be assessed at time of procedure, but also re-evaluated in patients with favorable early outcomes. APPROACH AND RESULTS Adult TIPS recipients in the multicenter Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches retrospective cohort study were included (N=1,127 patients; 2,040 person-years follow-up). Adjusted competing risk regressions were used to assess factors associated with long-term post-TIPS clinical outcomes at time of procedure and at 6 months post-TIPS. MELD-Na at TIPS was significantly associated with post-TIPS mortality (sHR of death 1.1 [p=0.42], 1.3 [p=0.04], and 1.7 [p<0.01] for MELD-Na 15-19, 20-24, and ≥25 relative to MELD-Na <15, respectively). MELD 3.0 was also associated with post-TIPS outcomes. Among the 694 (62%) patients who achieved early (6 mo) post-TIPS TFS, rates of long-term TFS were 88% at 1-year and 57% at 3-years post-TIPS. Additionally, a within-individual increase in MELD-Na score of >3 points from TIPS to 6 months post-TIPS was significantly associated with long-term mortality, regardless of initial MELD-Na score (sHR of death 1.8, p<0.01). For patients with long-term post-TIPS TFS, rates of complications of the TIPS or portal hypertension were low. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with early post-TIPS TFS, prognosis and need for LT should be reassessed, informed by post-procedure changes in MELD-Na and clinical status. For selected patients, "destination TIPS" without LT may offer long-term survival with freedom from portal hypertensive complications.