Experimental investigation and thermo-electrical performance modeling of two PV plants in arid climates

In the target of 100% renewable energy by 2050, photovoltaic (PV) performance modeling is important for accurately predicting the electricity generation profile. This study aims to develop a new model based on 1) tilted irradiance, 2) ambient and module temperatures, and 3) output power. Thus, this method enables more accurate use of tilted irradiance and ambient temperature with investigated thermo-electrical parameters in the sc-Si PV efficiency modeling under arid climates. Therefore, we focus on the comparison of the measured cell temperature and output inverter power with ten/eight relevant thermo-electrical models, including the proposed one.

Three empirical input parameters are investigated based on experimental data collected from two R&D PV plants in Morocco. The operating Temperature Coefficient of Power, Low Light Efficiency, and heat loss U_L for the investigated PV modules in Marrakech are −0.4541 %/°C, 94 %, and 47 W/m²/°C, respectively. Due to the low wind effect, U_L is 10 % lower than Essaouira’s value. All empirical parameters investigated are very close to the estimated values using some models from the literature, while they are not equal to the values provided by the manufacturers. The NRMSE is reduced by about 2 times after data cleaning for all electrical models. Consequently, the proposed model is the best, with a minimal NRMSE of 4.34 % and a maximal R² and Quality-Accuracy Index of 99.67 % and 19.83, respectively, which demonstrates why the inclusion of the second-order logarithmic irradiance effect plays an important role in PV efficiency modeling. Additionally, non-linear models perform better than multi-linear ones, with an RMSE and MBE less than 25 and 6 W/kW_p, respectively. The proposed method is designed to support researchers and engineers in accurately predicting PV power under various operating and environmental conditions.