余弦分析约束法优化对流尺度集合预测初始扰动的可行性研究

IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Qiuping Wang , Lu Sun , Xulin Ma , Jing Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了提高极端天气事件的预报技能,为对流尺度集合预报系统(EPS)构建精确的初始条件至关重要。传统的初始扰动方案,如动态降尺度,无法准确捕捉对流尺度预报误差的幅度或结构,尤其是在陡峭地形附近或天气系统快速变化过程中的中尺度和小尺度系统。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种新的初始扰动优化技术,即余弦分析约束法。该方法通过引入数据同化产生的分析增量中的较小尺度信息来改进降尺度初始扰动。我们在中国气象局对流尺度 EPS 中演示了余弦分析约束方法的可行性。以未对初始扰动方案进行任何修改的对照试验(CTRL)为参考,我们设计了余弦分析约束试验(CONS),并与 CTRL 进行了比较。我们选择了一个对流降水的案例研究,并初始化了两组为期一个月的实验,以验证新方法的可行性并排除案例依赖性。一个月的试验结果表明,采用余弦分析约束方法优化初始扰动,可以有效提高集合平均值与相应再分析场(视为观测值)的一致性。在案例研究中,CONS中较大的降水扩散水平分布更有效地指示了对流性降水的位置,这对业务天气预报非常重要。水汽过程的重要影响得到了证实,尤其是在 CONS。在对初始扰动进行重定标后,整个研究域的验证结果得到了显著改善。总体而言,不同气压水平的气象场和较小尺度对流系统极端降水的预报技能都得到了提高,这说明余弦分析约束方法在改善 CMA 对流尺度 EPS 初始扰动质量方面具有潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A feasibility study of the cosine analysis constraint method for optimizing initial perturbations of convective-scale ensemble prediction

To improve forecast skill of extreme weather events, it is of primary importance to construct accurate initial conditions for a convective-scale ensemble prediction system (EPS). The traditional initial perturbation schemes, e.g., dynamic downscaling, fail to capture the amplitude or structure of convective-scale forecast errors accurately, especially near steep terrain or meso- and small-scale systems during weather system's rapid change. In this study, we developed a new initial perturbation optimizing technique, namely the cosine analysis constraint method. This method is then used to improve the downscaled initial perturbations by introducing smaller-scale information from the analysis increments, generated from data assimilation. We demonstrate the feasibility of the cosine analysis constraint method in the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) convective-scale EPS. Using the control experiment (CTRL) without any modification to the initial perturbation scheme as a reference, we designed the cosine analysis constraint experiment (CONS) and compared it with CTRL. We selected a case study of convective precipitation and two groups of one-month experiments were initialized to verify the feasibility of the new method and exclude case dependence. The results of the one-month test show that adopting the cosine analysis constraint method to optimize the initial perturbations can effectively enhance the consistency between the ensemble mean and the corresponding reanalysis field (regarded as observations). In the case study, the larger horizontal distribution of precipitation spread in CONS indicated the location of convective precipitation more effectively, which is important for operational weather forecasting. The significant effect of the moisture process was confirmed, especially in CONS. The verification results of the entire study domain were significantly improved after the initial perturbations were rescaled. Overall, the forecast skill of meteorological fields at different pressure levels and the extreme precipitation of smaller-scale convective systems were enhanced, which illustrated the potential of the cosine analysis constraint method to improve the quality of initial perturbations in CMA convective-scale EPS.

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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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