Segmenting transit ridership: From crisis to opportunity

Crises are an opportunity to learn, and transportation is no exception. The dramatic reduction in mobility levels during COVID-19, the slow recovery of transit ridership and new trends such as remote working have raised essential questions for the future of public transport. Our work focuses on transit rider segmentation, understanding the heterogeneity of users based on their behaviour before, during, and coming out of the pandemic, and what that means for the economic and social sustainability of transit systems. We asked ourselves two main questions: (i) will people continue riding transit after COVID-19? and (ii) what are riders’ reasons behind increasing, maintaining, or decreasing public transport use? Using a two-wave survey conducted in 2020 and 2021, we assessed the motives behind future public transport use in two Canadian cities (Toronto and Vancouver). We used quantitative and qualitative methods, particularly latent class cluster analysis (LCCA), text mining, and qualitative content analysis. We identified six transit riders’ profiles, ranging from those experiencing transport poverty who rely on public transport to those more resourced users who will ride less since they can choose alternatives such as remote work, private modes, or active travel. We discuss the policy and practice implications of these results, focusing on what public transport decision-makers should prioritize to benefit disadvantaged groups and recover ridership.