Angelica Villalobo-Lopez, Carol M. Peña, Antonio Varas-Myrik, Michiel Pillet, Paulina Jahnsen, Patricio Pliscoff, Bárbara Goettsch, Pablo C. Guerrero
{"title":"贸易和偷猎压力对阿塔卡马沙漠仙人掌灭绝风险的影响。","authors":"Angelica Villalobo-Lopez, Carol M. Peña, Antonio Varas-Myrik, Michiel Pillet, Paulina Jahnsen, Patricio Pliscoff, Bárbara Goettsch, Pablo C. Guerrero","doi":"10.1111/cobi.14353","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this era of a global biodiversity crisis, vascular plants are facing unprecedented extinction rates. We conducted an assessment of the extinction risk of 32 species and 7 subspecies of <i>Copiapoa</i>, a genus endemic to Chile's fog-dependent coastal Atacama Desert. We applied the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Categories and Criteria enhanced by expert insights and knowledge. Our primary aim was to analyze the impact of trade and poaching on their extinction risk. We employed machine learning models, including multinomial logistic regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), to analyze the relationships between conservation status and various factors. These factors encompassed trade and poaching activities, landscape condition, human footprint, monthly cloud frequency, and biological traits such as evolutionary distinctiveness and maximum diameter. Seven taxa had an area of occupancy (AOO) of <10 km<sup>2</sup>, 10 additional taxa had an AOO of <20 km<sup>2</sup>, and 16 taxa had an AOO of ≤100 km<sup>2</sup>. This reassessment exposed a critical level of extinction risk for the genus; 92% of the taxa were classified as threatened, 41% as critically endangered, 41% as endangered, and 10% as vulnerable. MLR, DT, and RF exhibited accuracies of 0.784, 0.730, and 0.598, respectively, and identified trade and poaching pressure and landscape condition as the primary drivers of extinction risk. Our assessment of <i>Copiapoa</i> showed trade, poaching, habitat degradation, and their synergic impacts as the main drivers of the genus’ extinction risk. Our results highlight the urgent need for nations to develop and enforce strategies to monitor and control trade and poaching pressure because these factors are crucial for the long-term persistence of desert plants.</p>","PeriodicalId":10689,"journal":{"name":"Conservation Biology","volume":"38 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/cobi.14353","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Effects of trade and poaching pressure on extinction risk for cacti in the Atacama Desert\",\"authors\":\"Angelica Villalobo-Lopez, Carol M. Peña, Antonio Varas-Myrik, Michiel Pillet, Paulina Jahnsen, Patricio Pliscoff, Bárbara Goettsch, Pablo C. Guerrero\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/cobi.14353\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>In this era of a global biodiversity crisis, vascular plants are facing unprecedented extinction rates. We conducted an assessment of the extinction risk of 32 species and 7 subspecies of <i>Copiapoa</i>, a genus endemic to Chile's fog-dependent coastal Atacama Desert. We applied the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Categories and Criteria enhanced by expert insights and knowledge. Our primary aim was to analyze the impact of trade and poaching on their extinction risk. We employed machine learning models, including multinomial logistic regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), to analyze the relationships between conservation status and various factors. These factors encompassed trade and poaching activities, landscape condition, human footprint, monthly cloud frequency, and biological traits such as evolutionary distinctiveness and maximum diameter. Seven taxa had an area of occupancy (AOO) of <10 km<sup>2</sup>, 10 additional taxa had an AOO of <20 km<sup>2</sup>, and 16 taxa had an AOO of ≤100 km<sup>2</sup>. This reassessment exposed a critical level of extinction risk for the genus; 92% of the taxa were classified as threatened, 41% as critically endangered, 41% as endangered, and 10% as vulnerable. MLR, DT, and RF exhibited accuracies of 0.784, 0.730, and 0.598, respectively, and identified trade and poaching pressure and landscape condition as the primary drivers of extinction risk. Our assessment of <i>Copiapoa</i> showed trade, poaching, habitat degradation, and their synergic impacts as the main drivers of the genus’ extinction risk. Our results highlight the urgent need for nations to develop and enforce strategies to monitor and control trade and poaching pressure because these factors are crucial for the long-term persistence of desert plants.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":10689,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Conservation Biology\",\"volume\":\"38 5\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/cobi.14353\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Conservation Biology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.14353\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Conservation Biology","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.14353","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
Effects of trade and poaching pressure on extinction risk for cacti in the Atacama Desert
In this era of a global biodiversity crisis, vascular plants are facing unprecedented extinction rates. We conducted an assessment of the extinction risk of 32 species and 7 subspecies of Copiapoa, a genus endemic to Chile's fog-dependent coastal Atacama Desert. We applied the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Categories and Criteria enhanced by expert insights and knowledge. Our primary aim was to analyze the impact of trade and poaching on their extinction risk. We employed machine learning models, including multinomial logistic regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), to analyze the relationships between conservation status and various factors. These factors encompassed trade and poaching activities, landscape condition, human footprint, monthly cloud frequency, and biological traits such as evolutionary distinctiveness and maximum diameter. Seven taxa had an area of occupancy (AOO) of <10 km2, 10 additional taxa had an AOO of <20 km2, and 16 taxa had an AOO of ≤100 km2. This reassessment exposed a critical level of extinction risk for the genus; 92% of the taxa were classified as threatened, 41% as critically endangered, 41% as endangered, and 10% as vulnerable. MLR, DT, and RF exhibited accuracies of 0.784, 0.730, and 0.598, respectively, and identified trade and poaching pressure and landscape condition as the primary drivers of extinction risk. Our assessment of Copiapoa showed trade, poaching, habitat degradation, and their synergic impacts as the main drivers of the genus’ extinction risk. Our results highlight the urgent need for nations to develop and enforce strategies to monitor and control trade and poaching pressure because these factors are crucial for the long-term persistence of desert plants.
期刊介绍:
Conservation Biology welcomes submissions that address the science and practice of conserving Earth's biological diversity. We encourage submissions that emphasize issues germane to any of Earth''s ecosystems or geographic regions and that apply diverse approaches to analyses and problem solving. Nevertheless, manuscripts with relevance to conservation that transcend the particular ecosystem, species, or situation described will be prioritized for publication.